Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Union Berlin v Bayern Munich

2026-08-21 16:20 UTC — Frauen-Bundesliga

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

83%

11%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Union Berlin (Local)

Prediction 6.01%16.64fair odd

EV +8.20%

Edge +0.455%

Kelly +0.482%

Growth +0.040%

assuming max odds 18.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

4.97%6.01%6.01%7.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

11.0014.0015.0018.009.09%7.14%6.67%5.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bayern Munich (Visit)

Prediction 82.72%1.21fair odd

EV -9.84%

Edge -9.02%

Kelly -109.30%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

78.55%82.72%82.72%85.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.051.071.061.0995.24%93.46%94.34%91.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.27%8.87fair odd

EV +2.56%

Edge +0.281%

Kelly +0.316%

Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 9.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

9.83%11.27%11.27%13.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

6.007.428.009.1016.67%13.48%12.50%10.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Union Berlin (Local): 6.01%; Bayern Munich (Visit): 82.72%; Draw: 11.27%. For Union Berlin (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 16.64. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 18.00, producing a positive expected value of +8.20%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	18.00I 5.56%NM 4.97%EV +8.20%E +0.455%K +0.482%G +0.040%	1.05I 95.24%NM 85.20%EV -13.15%E -12.52%K -262.91%G +0.000%	9.10I 10.99%NM 9.83%EV +2.56%E +0.281%K +0.316%G +0.008%	11.8%	2026-08-20 12:49
Tipico (DE)🎯	15.00I 6.67%NM 6.01%EV -9.84%E -0.656%K -0.703%G +0.000%	1.09I 91.74%NM 82.72%EV -9.84%E -9.02%K -109.30%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.27%EV -9.84%E -1.23%K -1.41%G +0.000%	10.9%	2026-08-20 11:49
BoyleSports🎯	15.00I 6.67%NM 6.01%EV -9.84%E -0.656%K -0.703%G +0.000%	1.09I 91.74%NM 82.72%EV -9.84%E -9.02%K -109.30%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.27%EV -9.84%E -1.23%K -1.41%G +0.000%	10.9%	2026-08-20 11:49
Bet Victor🎯	11.00I 9.09%NM 7.57%EV -33.88%E -3.08%K -3.39%G +0.000%	1.06I 94.34%NM 78.55%EV -12.32%E -11.62%K -205.30%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 13.88%EV -32.38%E -5.40%K -6.48%G +0.000%	20.1%	2026-08-20 12:53
betano_uk🎯	11.00I 9.09%NM 7.57%EV -33.88%E -3.08%K -3.39%G +0.000%	1.06I 94.34%NM 78.55%EV -12.32%E -11.62%K -205.30%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 13.88%EV -32.38%E -5.40%K -6.48%G +0.000%	20.1%	2026-08-20 12:54

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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