The School of Odds
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Union Berlin v 1. FC Nürnberg

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 12:00 UTC

Final: Union Berlin 2–1 1. FC Nürnberg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Union Berlin (Local)

Prediction 59.50%1.68fair odd
EV -7.78%
Edge -5.02%
Kelly -14.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.08%59.50%60.09%60.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.511.501.5568.03%66.28%66.67%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Nürnberg (Visit)

Prediction 19.50%5.13fair odd
EV -5.24%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.84%19.50%19.35%22.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.534.604.8626.32%22.06%21.74%20.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.01%4.76fair odd
EV -5.48%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -1.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.84%21.01%20.56%22.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.124.104.5025.64%24.29%24.39%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Union Berlin (Local): 59.50%; 1. FC Nürnberg (Visit): 19.50%; Draw: 21.01%. For 1. FC Nürnberg (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.13. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.86, with an expected value of -5.24%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
William Hill🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.15%EV -7.78%E -5.02%K -14.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.13%EV -14.21%E -3.23%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.71%EV -18.08%E -4.64%K -6.23%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-18 11:44
Pinnacle🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.27%EV -8.38%E -5.44%K -15.51%G +0.000%4.86I 20.58%NM 19.10%EV -5.24%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -5.48%E -1.22%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-18 11:50
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.47%EV -8.97%E -5.86%K -16.93%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.98%EV -14.21%E -3.23%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.55%EV -18.08%E -4.64%K -6.23%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-18 11:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.47%EV -8.97%E -5.86%K -16.93%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.98%EV -14.21%E -3.23%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.55%EV -18.08%E -4.64%K -6.23%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-18 11:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.47%EV -8.97%E -5.86%K -16.93%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.98%EV -14.21%E -3.23%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.55%EV -18.08%E -4.64%K -6.23%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-18 11:44
1xBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.17%EV -10.76%E -7.17%K -21.51%G +0.000%4.79I 20.88%NM 18.84%EV -6.60%E -1.38%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.99%EV -9.68%E -2.25%K -2.93%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-18 11:49
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.10%EV -10.76%E -7.17%K -21.51%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.27%EV -10.31%E -2.24%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.62%EV -13.88%E -3.38%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-15 12:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.10%EV -10.76%E -7.17%K -21.51%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.27%EV -10.31%E -2.24%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.62%EV -13.88%E -3.38%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-15 12:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.10%EV -10.76%E -7.17%K -21.51%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.27%EV -10.31%E -2.24%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.62%EV -13.88%E -3.38%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-15 12:09
Unibet (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.10%EV -10.76%E -7.17%K -21.51%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.27%EV -10.31%E -2.24%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.62%EV -13.88%E -3.38%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-15 12:10
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.10%EV -10.76%E -7.17%K -21.51%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.27%EV -10.31%E -2.24%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.62%EV -13.88%E -3.38%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-15 12:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.10%EV -10.76%E -7.17%K -21.51%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.27%EV -10.31%E -2.24%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.62%EV -13.88%E -3.38%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-15 12:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.10%EV -10.76%E -7.17%K -21.51%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.27%EV -10.31%E -2.24%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.62%EV -13.88%E -3.38%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-15 12:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.10%EV -10.76%E -7.17%K -21.51%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.27%EV -10.31%E -2.24%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.62%EV -13.88%E -3.38%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-15 12:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.10%EV -10.76%E -7.17%K -21.51%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.27%EV -10.31%E -2.24%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.62%EV -13.88%E -3.38%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-15 12:10
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 57.08%EV -10.76%E -7.17%K -21.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.53%EV -25.91%E -6.82%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.39%EV -11.78%E -2.80%K -3.68%G +0.000%16.8%2026-10-18 11:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.74%EV -12.54%E -8.53%K -26.68%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -10.31%E -2.24%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.84%EV -5.48%E -1.22%K -1.56%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-18 11:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.53I 65.36%NM 57.53%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.47%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.00%13.6%2026-10-18 11:45