The School of Odds
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TSG Hoffenheim v VfL Wolfsburg

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 13:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TSG Hoffenheim (Local)

Prediction 22.88%4.37fair odd
EV -5.98%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -1.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.47%22.88%22.72%23.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.793.754.1127.78%26.37%26.67%24.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

VfL Wolfsburg (Visit)

Prediction 53.72%1.86fair odd
EV -7.59%
Edge -4.41%
Kelly -10.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.09%53.72%54.28%54.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.661.651.7263.69%60.12%60.61%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.40%4.27fair odd
EV -5.00%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -1.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.49%23.40%23.00%24.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.843.954.0628.57%26.01%25.32%24.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TSG Hoffenheim (Local): 22.88%; VfL Wolfsburg (Visit): 53.72%; Draw: 23.40%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.27. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.06, with an expected value of -5.00%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯4.11I 24.33%NM 22.72%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.28%EV -7.59%E -4.41%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.00%EV -5.00%E -1.23%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-21 11:45
1xBet🎯4.04I 24.75%NM 22.47%EV -7.58%E -1.88%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.37%EV -10.28%E -6.16%K -15.34%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.16%EV -8.27%E -2.11%K -2.83%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-21 11:45
Tipico (DE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.60%EV -8.50%E -2.12%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.79%EV -11.35%E -6.88%K -17.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.60%EV -6.40%E -1.60%K -2.13%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-21 12:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -13.07%E -3.44%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.78%EV -8.67%E -5.10%K -12.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -11.08%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-20 18:05
Coral🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -13.07%E -3.44%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.78%EV -8.67%E -5.10%K -12.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -11.08%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-20 18:10
888sport🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.31%EV -13.07%E -3.44%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.09%EV -8.67%E -5.10%K -12.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.60%EV -15.76%E -4.38%K -6.06%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-21 11:45
William Hill🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.31%EV -13.07%E -3.44%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.09%EV -8.67%E -5.10%K -12.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.60%EV -15.76%E -4.38%K -6.06%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-21 11:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.31%EV -13.07%E -3.44%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.09%EV -8.67%E -5.10%K -12.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.60%EV -15.76%E -4.38%K -6.06%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-21 11:45
888sport (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.31%EV -13.07%E -3.44%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.09%EV -8.67%E -5.10%K -12.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.60%EV -15.76%E -4.38%K -6.06%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-21 11:45
Unibet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.68%EV -14.22%E -3.79%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 53.83%EV -11.35%E -6.88%K -17.47%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.49%EV -7.57%E -1.92%K -2.57%G +0.000%12.6%2026-03-21 12:09
LiveScore Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.68%EV -14.22%E -3.79%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 53.83%EV -11.35%E -6.88%K -17.47%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.49%EV -7.57%E -1.92%K -2.57%G +0.000%12.6%2026-03-21 12:10
Grosvenor🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.68%EV -14.22%E -3.79%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 53.83%EV -11.35%E -6.88%K -17.47%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.49%EV -7.57%E -1.92%K -2.57%G +0.000%12.6%2026-03-21 12:09
Unibet (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.68%EV -14.22%E -3.79%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 53.83%EV -11.35%E -6.88%K -17.47%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.49%EV -7.57%E -1.92%K -2.57%G +0.000%12.6%2026-03-21 12:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.68%EV -14.22%E -3.79%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 53.83%EV -11.35%E -6.88%K -17.47%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.49%EV -7.57%E -1.92%K -2.57%G +0.000%12.6%2026-03-21 12:10
Virgin Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.68%EV -14.22%E -3.79%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 53.83%EV -11.35%E -6.88%K -17.47%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.49%EV -7.57%E -1.92%K -2.57%G +0.000%12.6%2026-03-21 12:09
LeoVegas🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.68%EV -14.22%E -3.79%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 53.83%EV -11.35%E -6.88%K -17.47%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.49%EV -7.57%E -1.92%K -2.57%G +0.000%12.6%2026-03-21 12:09
Unibet (NL)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.68%EV -14.22%E -3.79%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 53.83%EV -11.35%E -6.88%K -17.47%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.49%EV -7.57%E -1.92%K -2.57%G +0.000%12.6%2026-03-21 12:09
ATG (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.68%EV -14.22%E -3.79%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 53.83%EV -11.35%E -6.88%K -17.47%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.49%EV -7.57%E -1.92%K -2.57%G +0.000%12.6%2026-03-21 12:09
Svenska Spel🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.68%EV -14.22%E -3.79%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 53.83%EV -11.35%E -6.88%K -17.47%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.49%EV -7.57%E -1.92%K -2.57%G +0.000%12.6%2026-03-21 12:09
BoyleSports🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 23.91%EV -17.65%E -4.90%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 53.13%EV -12.97%E -8.00%K -20.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.95%EV -12.25%E -3.27%K -4.45%G +0.000%16.2%2026-03-21 11:45
Bet Victor🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 23.14%EV -17.65%E -4.90%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 53.06%EV -15.65%E -9.97%K -27.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.80%EV -18.10%E -5.17%K -7.24%G +0.000%20.0%2026-03-21 11:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎3.85I 25.97%NM 23.00%1.64I 60.98%NM 54.00%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.00%12.9%2026-03-21 11:35