The School of Odds
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TSG Hoffenheim v RB Leipzig

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 12:00 UTC

Final: TSG Hoffenheim 0–0 RB Leipzig

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TSG Hoffenheim (Local)

Prediction 61.97%1.61fair odd
EV -6.42%
Edge -4.25%
Kelly -12.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.54%61.97%61.50%63.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.471.471.5171.43%68.19%68.03%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

RB Leipzig (Visit)

Prediction 17.92%5.58fair odd
EV -2.70%
Edge -0.498%
Kelly -0.610%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.73%17.92%18.14%18.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.874.805.4322.22%20.52%20.83%18.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.11%4.97fair odd
EV -5.50%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -1.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.18%20.11%20.36%21.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.294.254.7026.32%23.33%23.53%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TSG Hoffenheim (Local): 61.97%; RB Leipzig (Visit): 17.92%; Draw: 20.11%. For RB Leipzig (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.58. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.43, with an expected value of -2.70%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.50%EV -6.42%E -4.25%K -12.58%G +0.000%5.12I 19.53%NM 18.14%EV -8.26%E -1.61%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.56I 21.93%NM 20.36%EV -8.31%E -1.82%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 10:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.94%EV -7.04%E -4.69%K -14.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -10.41%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.78%EV -11.53%E -2.62%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-17 04:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.22%EV -8.28%E -5.59%K -17.24%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.57%EV -13.99%E -2.91%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -15.55%E -3.70%K -4.86%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-17 10:40
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.22%EV -8.28%E -5.59%K -17.24%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.57%EV -13.99%E -2.91%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -15.55%E -3.70%K -4.86%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-17 10:40
Unibet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.53%EV -8.90%E -6.05%K -18.93%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.54%EV -13.99%E -2.91%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.94%EV -14.55%E -3.42%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-14 17:26
LeoVegas🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.53%EV -8.90%E -6.05%K -18.93%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.54%EV -13.99%E -2.91%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.94%EV -14.55%E -3.42%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-14 17:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.53%EV -8.90%E -6.05%K -18.93%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.54%EV -13.99%E -2.91%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.94%EV -14.55%E -3.42%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-14 17:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.53%EV -8.90%E -6.05%K -18.93%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.54%EV -13.99%E -2.91%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.94%EV -14.55%E -3.42%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-14 17:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.53%EV -8.90%E -6.05%K -18.93%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.54%EV -13.99%E -2.91%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.94%EV -14.55%E -3.42%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-14 17:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.53%EV -8.90%E -6.05%K -18.93%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.54%EV -13.99%E -2.91%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.94%EV -14.55%E -3.42%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-14 17:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.53%EV -8.90%E -6.05%K -18.93%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.54%EV -13.99%E -2.91%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.94%EV -14.55%E -3.42%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-14 17:26
Grosvenor🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.53%EV -8.90%E -6.05%K -18.93%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.54%EV -13.99%E -2.91%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.94%EV -14.55%E -3.42%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-14 17:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.53%EV -8.90%E -6.05%K -18.93%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.54%EV -13.99%E -2.91%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.94%EV -14.55%E -3.42%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-14 17:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.53%EV -8.90%E -6.05%K -18.93%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.54%EV -13.99%E -2.91%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.94%EV -14.55%E -3.42%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-14 17:20
1xBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.08%EV -10.76%E -7.47%K -24.45%G +0.000%5.43I 18.42%NM 16.73%EV -2.70%E -0.498%K -0.610%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.19%EV -9.52%E -2.12%K -2.72%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-17 06:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.48%EV -12.00%E -8.45%K -28.56%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.34%EV -6.82%E -1.31%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.18%EV -5.50%E -1.17%K -1.49%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-16 12:20
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 59.54%EV -13.24%E -9.45%K -33.09%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.52%EV -19.37%E -4.30%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 21.94%EV -23.59%E -6.21%K -8.43%G +0.000%20.0%2026-05-17 07:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.