The School of Odds
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TSG Hoffenheim v FSV Mainz 05

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 12:01 UTC

Final: TSG Hoffenheim 3–1 FSV Mainz 05

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TSG Hoffenheim (Local)

Prediction 74.54%1.34fair odd
EV -0.122%
Edge -0.091%
Kelly -0.358%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.80%74.59%74.54%77.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.211.201.3486.21%82.71%83.33%74.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FSV Mainz 05 (Visit)

Prediction 11.14%8.98fair odd
EV +5.82%
Edge +0.613%
Kelly +0.685%
Growth +0.040%

assuming max odds 9.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.36%11.14%11.14%13.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.008.458.509.5016.67%11.83%11.76%10.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 14.32%6.98fair odd
EV +3.14%
Edge +0.436%
Kelly +0.506%
Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 7.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.42%14.27%14.32%19.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.335.805.807.2023.09%17.23%17.24%13.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TSG Hoffenheim (Local): 74.54%; FSV Mainz 05 (Visit): 11.14%; Draw: 14.32%. For FSV Mainz 05 (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.98. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.82%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 75.32%EV -12.05%E -10.21%K -66.93%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV +5.82%E +0.613%K +0.685%G +0.040%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.32%EV -16.92%E -2.92%K -3.52%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-25 11:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 75.32%EV -12.05%E -10.21%K -66.93%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV +5.82%E +0.613%K +0.685%G +0.040%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.32%EV -16.92%E -2.92%K -3.52%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-25 11:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 75.32%EV -12.05%E -10.21%K -66.93%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV +5.82%E +0.613%K +0.685%G +0.040%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.32%EV -16.92%E -2.92%K -3.52%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-25 11:45
Grosvenor🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 75.32%EV -12.05%E -10.21%K -66.93%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV +5.82%E +0.613%K +0.685%G +0.040%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.32%EV -16.92%E -2.92%K -3.52%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-25 11:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 75.32%EV -12.05%E -10.21%K -66.93%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV +5.82%E +0.613%K +0.685%G +0.040%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.32%EV -16.92%E -2.92%K -3.52%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-25 11:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 75.32%EV -12.05%E -10.21%K -66.93%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV +5.82%E +0.613%K +0.685%G +0.040%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.32%EV -16.92%E -2.92%K -3.52%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-25 11:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 75.32%EV -12.05%E -10.21%K -66.93%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV +5.82%E +0.613%K +0.685%G +0.040%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.32%EV -16.92%E -2.92%K -3.52%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-25 11:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 75.32%EV -12.05%E -10.21%K -66.93%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV +5.82%E +0.613%K +0.685%G +0.040%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.32%EV -16.92%E -2.92%K -3.52%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-25 11:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 75.32%EV -12.05%E -10.21%K -66.93%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV +5.82%E +0.613%K +0.685%G +0.040%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.32%EV -16.92%E -2.92%K -3.52%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-25 11:45
William Hill🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.56%EV -10.56%E -8.80%K -52.78%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -5.32%E -0.626%K -0.709%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -14.05%E -2.34%K -2.81%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-25 11:55
888sport🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.56%EV -10.56%E -8.80%K -52.78%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -5.32%E -0.626%K -0.709%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -14.05%E -2.34%K -2.81%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-25 11:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.56%EV -10.56%E -8.80%K -52.78%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -5.32%E -0.626%K -0.709%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -14.05%E -2.34%K -2.81%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-25 11:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.56%EV -10.56%E -8.80%K -52.78%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -5.32%E -0.626%K -0.709%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -14.05%E -2.34%K -2.81%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-25 11:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 77.07%EV -13.54%E -11.67%K -84.61%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.52%EV -5.32%E -0.626%K -0.709%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.42%EV +3.14%E +0.436%K +0.506%G +0.016%11.9%2026-10-25 11:55
Pinnacle🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.83%E -5.46%K -27.32%G +0.000%7.91I 12.64%NM 11.77%EV -11.89%E -1.50%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.78I 14.75%NM 13.73%EV -2.88%E -0.424%K -0.498%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-25 11:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -6.83%E -5.46%K -27.32%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.12%EV -16.46%E -2.19%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.15%EV -14.05%E -2.34%K -2.81%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-25 12:00
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -6.83%E -5.46%K -27.32%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.12%EV -16.46%E -2.19%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.15%EV -14.05%E -2.34%K -2.81%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-25 12:00
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.23%EV -9.07%E -7.43%K -41.21%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.75%EV -16.46%E -2.19%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.02%EV -21.21%E -3.86%K -4.71%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-25 12:00
1xBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.79%EV -0.122%E -0.091%K -0.358%G +0.000%7.03I 14.22%NM 13.30%EV -21.69%E -3.09%K -3.60%G +0.000%5.53I 18.08%NM 16.91%EV -20.78%E -3.76%K -4.59%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-25 11:59
betano_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 66.80%EV -6.83%E -5.46%K -27.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 13.92%EV -33.17%E -5.53%K -6.63%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.28%EV -37.97%E -8.77%K -11.40%G +0.000%19.8%2026-10-25 11:59
Bet Victor🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 66.80%EV -6.83%E -5.46%K -27.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 13.92%EV -33.17%E -5.53%K -6.63%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.28%EV -37.97%E -8.77%K -11.40%G +0.000%19.8%2026-10-25 12:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.26I 79.37%NM 71.01%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.43%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.57%11.8%2026-10-25 12:00