The School of Odds
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SGS Essen v RB Leipzig

Kickoff: 2026-02-22 17:32 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SGS Essen (Local)

Prediction 24.98%4.00fair odd
EV -7.56%
Edge -2.04%
Kelly -2.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.49%24.98%24.98%29.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.183.053.7032.79%31.41%32.79%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

RB Leipzig (Visit)

Prediction 49.69%2.01fair odd
EV -1.61%
Edge -0.812%
Kelly -1.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.81%49.69%49.69%50.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.941.971.9855.56%51.46%50.76%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.32%3.95fair odd
EV -8.84%
Edge -2.45%
Kelly -3.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.17%25.32%25.32%26.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.443.403.6029.41%29.03%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SGS Essen (Local): 24.98%; RB Leipzig (Visit): 49.69%; Draw: 25.32%. For RB Leipzig (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.01. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.98, with an expected value of -1.61%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -7.56%E -2.04%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.34%EV -10.55%E -5.86%K -13.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -8.84%E -2.45%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.4%2026-02-22 17:30
Bet Victor🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -10.06%E -2.79%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.05%EV -7.07%E -3.78%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -8.84%E -2.45%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-22 17:28
Unibet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.09%EV -23.80%E -7.80%K -11.61%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 44.81%EV -1.61%E -0.812%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -13.90%E -4.09%K -5.79%G +0.000%12.7%2026-02-22 17:30
LiveScore Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.09%EV -23.80%E -7.80%K -11.61%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 44.81%EV -1.61%E -0.812%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -13.90%E -4.09%K -5.79%G +0.000%12.7%2026-02-22 17:29
Virgin Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.09%EV -23.80%E -7.80%K -11.61%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 44.81%EV -1.61%E -0.812%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -13.90%E -4.09%K -5.79%G +0.000%12.7%2026-02-22 17:30
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.03%EV -23.80%E -7.80%K -11.61%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 44.94%EV -2.10%E -1.07%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -13.90%E -4.09%K -5.79%G +0.000%13.0%2026-02-22 17:30
LeoVegas🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.03%EV -23.80%E -7.80%K -11.61%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 44.94%EV -2.10%E -1.07%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -13.90%E -4.09%K -5.79%G +0.000%13.0%2026-02-22 17:30
Unibet (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.03%EV -23.80%E -7.80%K -11.61%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 44.94%EV -2.10%E -1.07%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -13.90%E -4.09%K -5.79%G +0.000%13.0%2026-02-22 17:29
Grosvenor🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.03%EV -23.80%E -7.80%K -11.61%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 44.94%EV -2.10%E -1.07%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -13.90%E -4.09%K -5.79%G +0.000%13.0%2026-02-22 17:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.