The School of Odds
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SC Freiburg v RB Leipzig

Kickoff: 2026-10-16 16:30 UTC

Final: SC Freiburg 0–3 RB Leipzig

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Freiburg (Local)

Prediction 33.45%2.99fair odd
EV -4.34%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -2.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.45%33.45%33.30%35.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.602.552.8640.00%38.51%39.22%34.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

RB Leipzig (Visit)

Prediction 40.73%2.45fair odd
EV -4.27%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -3.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.12%40.73%40.87%42.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.252.252.3550.00%44.53%44.44%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.82%3.87fair odd
EV -5.51%
Edge -1.50%
Kelly -2.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.93%25.82%25.83%27.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.373.353.6631.25%29.66%29.85%27.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SC Freiburg (Local): 33.45%; RB Leipzig (Visit): 40.73%; Draw: 25.82%. For RB Leipzig (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.45. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.35, with an expected value of -4.27%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 32.45%EV -4.34%E -1.52%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.19%EV -10.38%E -4.72%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 25.36%EV -5.51%E -1.50%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-16 16:15
1xBet🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 32.93%EV -8.35%E -3.05%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.58%EV -11.61%E -5.35%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 25.49%EV -8.61%E -2.43%K -3.39%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-16 15:50
888sport🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.70%EV -9.69%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.13%EV -10.38%E -4.72%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.17%EV -16.09%E -4.95%K -7.15%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-16 15:44
William Hill🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.70%EV -9.69%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.13%EV -10.38%E -4.72%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.17%EV -16.09%E -4.95%K -7.15%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-16 15:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.77%EV -12.37%E -4.72%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.21%EV -10.38%E -4.72%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.02%EV -12.22%E -3.59%K -5.09%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-16 15:05
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.77%EV -12.37%E -4.72%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.21%EV -10.38%E -4.72%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.02%EV -12.22%E -3.59%K -5.09%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-16 15:05
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 32.63%EV -13.04%E -5.01%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.42%EV -18.53%E -9.27%K -18.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.95%EV -12.22%E -3.59%K -5.09%G +0.000%17.9%2026-10-16 16:15
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.19%EV -14.71%E -5.77%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.88%EV -8.35%E -3.71%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.93%EV -7.06%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-16 15:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.13%EV -14.71%E -5.77%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.12%EV -4.27%E -1.82%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.74%EV -13.51%E -4.03%K -5.75%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-15 17:55
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.13%EV -14.71%E -5.77%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.12%EV -4.27%E -1.82%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.74%EV -13.51%E -4.03%K -5.75%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-15 17:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.13%EV -14.71%E -5.77%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.12%EV -4.27%E -1.82%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.74%EV -13.51%E -4.03%K -5.75%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-15 17:54
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.13%EV -14.71%E -5.77%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.12%EV -4.27%E -1.82%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.74%EV -13.51%E -4.03%K -5.75%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-15 17:54
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.13%EV -14.71%E -5.77%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.12%EV -4.27%E -1.82%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.74%EV -13.51%E -4.03%K -5.75%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-15 17:54
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.13%EV -14.71%E -5.77%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.12%EV -4.27%E -1.82%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.74%EV -13.51%E -4.03%K -5.75%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-15 17:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.13%EV -14.71%E -5.77%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.12%EV -4.27%E -1.82%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.74%EV -13.51%E -4.03%K -5.75%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-15 17:53
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.13%EV -14.71%E -5.77%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.12%EV -4.27%E -1.82%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.74%EV -13.51%E -4.03%K -5.75%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-15 17:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.13%EV -14.71%E -5.77%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.12%EV -4.27%E -1.82%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.74%EV -13.51%E -4.03%K -5.75%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-15 17:55
betano_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 33.32%EV -16.38%E -6.55%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 40.64%EV -16.49%E -8.05%K -15.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.04%EV -17.38%E -5.43%K -7.90%G +0.000%20.0%2026-10-16 15:49
Bet Victor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 33.32%EV -16.38%E -6.55%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 40.64%EV -16.49%E -8.05%K -15.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.04%EV -17.38%E -5.43%K -7.90%G +0.000%20.0%2026-10-16 15:48
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.68I 37.31%NM 32.89%2.16I 46.30%NM 40.80%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.31%13.5%2026-10-16 15:50