The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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SC Freiburg v Bayer Leverkusen

Kickoff: 2026-09-20 14:01 UTC

Final: SC Freiburg 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Freiburg (Local)

Prediction 18.87%5.30fair odd
EV -1.68%
Edge -0.322%
Kelly -0.399%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.94%18.87%18.87%20.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.494.305.2123.26%22.29%23.26%19.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bayer Leverkusen (Visit)

Prediction 59.62%1.68fair odd
EV -5.79%
Edge -3.67%
Kelly -9.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.25%59.62%59.62%60.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.541.571.5871.43%64.90%63.69%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.50%4.65fair odd
EV -6.02%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -1.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.38%21.50%21.50%23.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.933.854.3726.67%25.44%25.97%22.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SC Freiburg (Local): 18.87%; Bayer Leverkusen (Visit): 59.62%; Draw: 21.50%. For SC Freiburg (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.30. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.21, with an expected value of -1.68%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯5.21I 19.19%NM 17.94%EV -1.68%E -0.322%K -0.399%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.68%EV -8.18%E -5.31%K -15.15%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 21.38%EV -6.02%E -1.38%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 13:59
Tipico (DE)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.40%EV -7.53%E -1.54%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.12%EV -10.56%E -7.04%K -21.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.47%EV -9.68%E -2.30%K -3.02%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-20 13:49
Pinnacle🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -9.42%E -1.96%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.12%EV -6.39%E -4.07%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 21.54%EV -7.31%E -1.70%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 12:14
Bet Victor🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 18.14%EV -13.19%E -2.87%K -3.66%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 59.61%EV -16.53%E -11.81%K -41.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.25%EV -19.36%E -5.16%K -7.04%G +0.000%19.8%2026-09-20 13:57
betano_uk🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 18.14%EV -13.19%E -2.87%K -3.66%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 59.61%EV -16.53%E -11.81%K -41.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.25%EV -19.36%E -5.16%K -7.04%G +0.000%19.8%2026-09-20 13:59
Unibet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.67%EV -18.85%E -4.38%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 56.25%EV -5.79%E -3.67%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.08%EV -17.21%E -4.47%K -6.04%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-20 13:54
LiveScore Bet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.67%EV -18.85%E -4.38%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 56.25%EV -5.79%E -3.67%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.08%EV -17.21%E -4.47%K -6.04%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-20 13:54
Virgin Bet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.67%EV -18.85%E -4.38%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 56.25%EV -5.79%E -3.67%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.08%EV -17.21%E -4.47%K -6.04%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-20 13:54
Unibet (NL)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.59%EV -18.85%E -4.38%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.40%EV -6.39%E -4.07%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.00%EV -17.21%E -4.47%K -6.04%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-20 13:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.59%EV -18.85%E -4.38%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.40%EV -6.39%E -4.07%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.00%EV -17.21%E -4.47%K -6.04%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-20 13:54
Unibet (SE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.59%EV -18.85%E -4.38%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.40%EV -6.39%E -4.07%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.00%EV -17.21%E -4.47%K -6.04%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-20 13:54
Grosvenor🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.59%EV -18.85%E -4.38%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.40%EV -6.39%E -4.07%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.00%EV -17.21%E -4.47%K -6.04%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-20 13:54
ATG (SE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.59%EV -18.85%E -4.38%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.40%EV -6.39%E -4.07%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.00%EV -17.21%E -4.47%K -6.04%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-20 13:54
Svenska Spel🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.59%EV -18.85%E -4.38%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.40%EV -6.39%E -4.07%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.00%EV -17.21%E -4.47%K -6.04%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-20 13:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.