Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

RB Leipzig v Union Berlin

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 15:04 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

40%

37%

23%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

RB Leipzig (Local)

Prediction 39.94%2.50fair odd

EV -2.54%

Edge -1.04%

Kelly -1.76%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

36.99%39.94%39.94%42.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.072.152.072.4448.31%46.56%48.31%40.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Union Berlin (Visit)

Prediction 36.58%2.73fair odd

EV +4.25%

Edge +1.49%

Kelly +2.30%

Growth +0.098%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

31.10%36.58%36.58%37.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.252.722.852.8544.44%36.70%35.09%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.48%4.26fair odd

EV -5.62%

Edge -1.40%

Kelly -1.86%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

23.24%23.48%23.48%26.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.203.503.404.0231.25%28.59%29.41%24.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: RB Leipzig (Local): 39.94%; Union Berlin (Visit): 36.58%; Draw: 23.48%. For Union Berlin (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.73. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.25%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Draw	Margin	Updated
Unibet🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 42.82%EV -17.32%E -8.37%K -16.19%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 31.10%EV +4.25%E +1.49%K +2.30%G +0.098%	3.40I 29.41%NM 26.07%EV -20.18%E -5.94%K -8.41%G +0.000%	12.8%	2026-03-14 15:00
Unibet (SE)🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 42.82%EV -17.32%E -8.37%K -16.19%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 31.10%EV +4.25%E +1.49%K +2.30%G +0.098%	3.40I 29.41%NM 26.07%EV -20.18%E -5.94%K -8.41%G +0.000%	12.8%	2026-03-14 15:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 42.82%EV -17.32%E -8.37%K -16.19%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 31.10%EV +4.25%E +1.49%K +2.30%G +0.098%	3.40I 29.41%NM 26.07%EV -20.18%E -5.94%K -8.41%G +0.000%	12.8%	2026-03-14 15:00
Virgin Bet🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 42.82%EV -17.32%E -8.37%K -16.19%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 31.10%EV +4.25%E +1.49%K +2.30%G +0.098%	3.40I 29.41%NM 26.07%EV -20.18%E -5.94%K -8.41%G +0.000%	12.8%	2026-03-14 15:00
Grosvenor🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 42.82%EV -17.32%E -8.37%K -16.19%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 31.10%EV +4.25%E +1.49%K +2.30%G +0.098%	3.40I 29.41%NM 26.07%EV -20.18%E -5.94%K -8.41%G +0.000%	12.8%	2026-03-14 15:00
LeoVegas🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 42.82%EV -17.32%E -8.37%K -16.19%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 31.10%EV +4.25%E +1.49%K +2.30%G +0.098%	3.40I 29.41%NM 26.07%EV -20.18%E -5.94%K -8.41%G +0.000%	12.8%	2026-03-14 15:00
LiveScore Bet🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 42.82%EV -17.32%E -8.37%K -16.19%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 31.10%EV +4.25%E +1.49%K +2.30%G +0.098%	3.40I 29.41%NM 26.07%EV -20.18%E -5.94%K -8.41%G +0.000%	12.8%	2026-03-14 15:00
Svenska Spel🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 42.82%EV -17.32%E -8.37%K -16.19%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 31.10%EV +4.25%E +1.49%K +2.30%G +0.098%	3.40I 29.41%NM 26.07%EV -20.18%E -5.94%K -8.41%G +0.000%	12.8%	2026-03-14 15:00
ATG (SE)🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 42.82%EV -17.32%E -8.37%K -16.19%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 31.10%EV +4.25%E +1.49%K +2.30%G +0.098%	3.40I 29.41%NM 26.07%EV -20.18%E -5.94%K -8.41%G +0.000%	12.8%	2026-03-14 15:00
Tipico (DE)🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 40.96%EV -12.13%E -5.51%K -10.10%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 35.33%EV -6.72%E -2.64%K -4.34%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 23.71%EV -10.79%E -2.84%K -3.85%G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-03-14 15:00
1xBet🎯	2.44I 40.98%NM 38.32%EV -2.54%E -1.04%K -1.76%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -8.55%E -3.42%K -5.70%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.28%EV -9.62%E -2.50%K -3.37%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-14 14:59
Pinnacle🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -4.14%E -1.72%K -2.96%G +0.000%	2.47I 40.49%NM 37.83%EV -9.65%E -3.91%K -6.56%G +0.000%	4.02I 24.88%NM 23.24%EV -5.62%E -1.40%K -1.86%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-14 14:59
Bet Victor🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 36.99%EV -10.13%E -4.50%K -8.10%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 36.99%EV -17.69%E -7.86%K -14.15%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 26.01%EV -24.88%E -7.77%K -11.31%G +0.000%	20.1%	2026-03-14 14:58

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.