The School of Odds
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RB Leipzig v SC Freiburg

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 13:02 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

RB Leipzig (Local)

Prediction 42.72%2.34fair odd
EV -3.45%
Edge -1.53%
Kelly -2.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.79%42.72%42.72%43.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.212.232.2647.62%45.22%44.84%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SC Freiburg (Visit)

Prediction 31.56%3.17fair odd
EV -7.86%
Edge -2.69%
Kelly -4.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.16%31.56%31.56%34.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.722.702.9240.82%36.75%37.04%34.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.72%3.89fair odd
EV -5.59%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -2.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.51%25.72%25.72%27.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.363.303.6731.25%29.78%30.30%27.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: RB Leipzig (Local): 42.72%; SC Freiburg (Visit): 31.56%; Draw: 25.72%. For RB Leipzig (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.34. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.26, with an expected value of -3.45%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.42%EV -3.45%E -1.53%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.08%EV -10.70%E -3.78%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 25.51%EV -5.59%E -1.52%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-22 12:59
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.97%EV -4.74%E -2.12%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.01%EV -14.80%E -5.48%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -15.11%E -4.58%K -6.57%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-22 13:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.97%EV -4.74%E -2.12%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.01%EV -14.80%E -5.48%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -15.11%E -4.58%K -6.57%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-22 12:59
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.97%EV -4.74%E -2.12%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.01%EV -14.80%E -5.48%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -15.11%E -4.58%K -6.57%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-22 13:00
LeoVegas🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.97%EV -4.74%E -2.12%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.01%EV -14.80%E -5.48%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -15.11%E -4.58%K -6.57%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-22 13:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.97%EV -4.74%E -2.12%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.01%EV -14.80%E -5.48%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -15.11%E -4.58%K -6.57%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-22 13:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.97%EV -4.74%E -2.12%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.01%EV -14.80%E -5.48%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -15.11%E -4.58%K -6.57%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-22 12:59
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.97%EV -4.74%E -2.12%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.01%EV -14.80%E -5.48%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -15.11%E -4.58%K -6.57%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-22 12:59
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.97%EV -4.74%E -2.12%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.01%EV -14.80%E -5.48%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -15.11%E -4.58%K -6.57%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-22 12:59
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.97%EV -4.74%E -2.12%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.01%EV -14.80%E -5.48%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -15.11%E -4.58%K -6.57%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-22 13:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.97%EV -4.74%E -2.12%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.01%EV -14.80%E -5.48%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -15.11%E -4.58%K -6.57%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-22 12:59
Pinnacle🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.02%E -2.74%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.95%EV -7.86%E -2.69%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.63%EV -6.36%E -1.75%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-22 12:59
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -10.29%E -4.90%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -8.49%E -2.93%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -9.96%E -2.85%K -3.99%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-22 12:59
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 39.79%EV -10.29%E -4.90%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 34.10%EV -22.69%E -9.26%K -15.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.11%EV -17.68%E -5.53%K -8.04%G +0.000%19.7%2026-03-22 12:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.