The School of Odds
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RB Leipzig v FSV Mainz 05

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 12:00 UTC

Final: RB Leipzig 5–0 FSV Mainz 05

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

RB Leipzig (Local)

Prediction 66.33%1.51fair odd
EV -6.48%
Edge -4.59%
Kelly -15.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.72%66.33%66.33%68.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.381.401.4175.19%72.31%71.43%70.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FSV Mainz 05 (Visit)

Prediction 14.46%6.91fair odd
EV -2.37%
Edge -0.351%
Kelly -0.412%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.86%14.38%14.46%16.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.255.735.406.7519.05%17.45%18.52%14.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.21%5.21fair odd
EV +3.72%
Edge +0.689%
Kelly +0.845%
Growth +0.031%

assuming max odds 5.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.68%19.30%19.21%21.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.424.305.4025.64%22.62%23.26%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: RB Leipzig (Local): 66.33%; FSV Mainz 05 (Visit): 14.46%; Draw: 19.21%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.21. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.72%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -7.14%E -5.10%K -17.85%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.14%EV -2.37%E -0.351%K -0.412%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV +3.72%E +0.689%K +0.845%G +0.031%4.8%2026-10-03 11:33
Pinnacle🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 66.75%EV -7.80%E -5.61%K -20.01%G +0.000%6.48I 15.43%NM 14.32%EV -6.27%E -0.968%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.93%EV -5.88%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-03 11:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.75%EV -11.78%E -8.86%K -35.71%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.86%EV -5.98%E -0.921%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.39%EV -5.88%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-03 11:46
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.61%EV -7.14%E -5.10%K -17.85%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.73%EV -16.83%E -2.93%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.66%EV -11.65%E -2.53%K -3.24%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-03 11:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.61%EV -7.14%E -5.10%K -17.85%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.73%EV -16.83%E -2.93%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.66%EV -11.65%E -2.53%K -3.24%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-03 11:30
BoyleSports🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 65.91%EV -11.78%E -8.86%K -35.71%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.61%EV -13.22%E -2.20%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.48%EV -13.57%E -3.01%K -3.88%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-03 11:35
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.90%EV -9.79%E -7.20%K -27.20%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.71%EV -13.22%E -2.20%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.39%EV -16.83%E -3.89%K -5.05%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-03 11:50
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.90%EV -9.79%E -7.20%K -27.20%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.71%EV -13.22%E -2.20%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.39%EV -16.83%E -3.89%K -5.05%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-03 11:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.90%EV -9.79%E -7.20%K -27.20%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.71%EV -13.22%E -2.20%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.39%EV -16.83%E -3.89%K -5.05%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-03 11:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.90%EV -9.79%E -7.20%K -27.20%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.71%EV -13.22%E -2.20%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.39%EV -16.83%E -3.89%K -5.05%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-03 11:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 62.93%EV -6.48%E -4.59%K -15.80%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.43%EV -21.89%E -4.05%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.64%EV -17.41%E -4.05%K -5.28%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-02 17:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 62.93%EV -6.48%E -4.59%K -15.80%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.43%EV -21.89%E -4.05%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.64%EV -17.41%E -4.05%K -5.28%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-02 17:10
Unibet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 62.93%EV -6.48%E -4.59%K -15.80%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.43%EV -21.89%E -4.05%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.64%EV -17.41%E -4.05%K -5.28%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-02 17:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 62.93%EV -6.48%E -4.59%K -15.80%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.43%EV -21.89%E -4.05%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.64%EV -17.41%E -4.05%K -5.28%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-02 17:10
Grosvenor🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 62.93%EV -6.48%E -4.59%K -15.80%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.43%EV -21.89%E -4.05%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.64%EV -17.41%E -4.05%K -5.28%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-02 17:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 62.93%EV -6.48%E -4.59%K -15.80%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.43%EV -21.89%E -4.05%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.64%EV -17.41%E -4.05%K -5.28%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-02 17:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 62.93%EV -6.48%E -4.59%K -15.80%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.43%EV -21.89%E -4.05%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.64%EV -17.41%E -4.05%K -5.28%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-02 17:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 62.93%EV -6.48%E -4.59%K -15.80%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.43%EV -21.89%E -4.05%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.64%EV -17.41%E -4.05%K -5.28%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-02 17:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 62.93%EV -6.48%E -4.59%K -15.80%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.43%EV -21.89%E -4.05%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.64%EV -17.41%E -4.05%K -5.28%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-02 17:10
betano_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 63.06%EV -11.78%E -8.86%K -35.71%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 15.97%EV -24.06%E -4.58%K -5.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 20.97%EV -23.17%E -5.79%K -7.72%G +0.000%19.2%2026-10-03 11:54
Bet Victor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 62.72%EV -11.78%E -8.86%K -35.71%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 15.89%EV -24.06%E -4.58%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.39%EV -25.09%E -6.43%K -8.65%G +0.000%19.9%2026-10-03 11:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.36I 73.53%NM 64.44%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.65%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.92%14.1%2026-10-03 11:30