The School of Odds
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RB Leipzig v Bayern Munich

Kickoff: 2026-10-23 16:30 UTC

Final: RB Leipzig 1–5 Bayern Munich

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

RB Leipzig (Local)

Prediction 6.44%15.53fair odd
EV +3.02%
Edge +0.189%
Kelly +0.201%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 16.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.70%6.49%6.34%8.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.5013.3314.0016.009.52%7.50%7.14%6.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bayern Munich (Visit)

Prediction 82.65%1.21fair odd
EV -6.61%
Edge -5.85%
Kelly -50.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.64%82.54%82.39%84.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.101.101.1394.34%90.95%90.91%88.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 10.91%9.16fair odd
EV +3.66%
Edge +0.385%
Kelly +0.430%
Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 9.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.44%10.98%11.26%14.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.757.527.009.5017.39%13.31%14.29%10.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: RB Leipzig (Local): 6.44%; Bayern Munich (Visit): 82.65%; Draw: 10.91%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.16. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.66%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 5.98%EV -3.42%E -0.228%K -0.244%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 84.58%EV -12.39%E -11.69%K -206.51%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.44%EV +3.66%E +0.385%K +0.430%G +0.016%11.5%2026-10-23 15:50
Pinnacle🎯14.54I 6.88%NM 6.38%EV -6.38%E -0.439%K -0.471%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 83.59%EV -8.26%E -7.44%K -75.08%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.03%EV +0.929%E +0.100%K +0.113%G +0.001%7.8%2026-10-23 15:07
Coral🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.31%EV -29.18%E -2.65%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 80.93%EV -6.61%E -5.85%K -50.81%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -7.25%E -0.853%K -0.967%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-23 15:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.31%EV -29.18%E -2.65%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 80.93%EV -6.61%E -5.85%K -50.81%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -7.25%E -0.853%K -0.967%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-23 15:40
1xBet🎯14.70I 6.80%NM 6.04%EV -5.35%E -0.364%K -0.391%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 83.00%EV -11.56%E -10.81%K -165.20%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 10.96%EV -11.62%E -1.43%K -1.64%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-23 14:30
Unibet (UK)🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.70%EV +3.02%E +0.189%K +0.201%G +0.006%1.10I 90.91%NM 82.90%EV -9.08%E -8.26%K -90.85%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.40%EV -12.71%E -1.59%K -1.82%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-23 15:54
William Hill🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.98%EV -16.30%E -1.25%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 81.69%EV -8.26%E -7.44%K -75.08%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.33%EV -12.71%E -1.59%K -1.82%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-23 14:43
888sport🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.98%EV -16.30%E -1.25%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 81.69%EV -8.26%E -7.44%K -75.08%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.33%EV -12.71%E -1.59%K -1.82%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-23 14:31
Mr Green (SE)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.98%EV -16.30%E -1.25%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 81.69%EV -8.26%E -7.44%K -75.08%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.33%EV -12.71%E -1.59%K -1.82%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-23 14:31
888sport (SE)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.98%EV -16.30%E -1.25%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 81.69%EV -8.26%E -7.44%K -75.08%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.33%EV -12.71%E -1.59%K -1.82%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-23 14:31
Virgin Bet🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.36%EV -9.86%E -0.704%K -0.758%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 80.92%EV -9.08%E -8.26%K -90.85%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.72%EV -23.62%E -3.37%K -3.94%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-23 09:20
Unibet (SE)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.36%EV -9.86%E -0.704%K -0.758%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 80.92%EV -9.08%E -8.26%K -90.85%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.72%EV -23.62%E -3.37%K -3.94%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-23 09:19
Unibet🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.36%EV -9.86%E -0.704%K -0.758%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 80.92%EV -9.08%E -8.26%K -90.85%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.72%EV -23.62%E -3.37%K -3.94%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-23 09:20
Grosvenor🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.36%EV -9.86%E -0.704%K -0.758%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 80.92%EV -9.08%E -8.26%K -90.85%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.72%EV -23.62%E -3.37%K -3.94%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-23 09:19
Unibet (NL)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.36%EV -9.86%E -0.704%K -0.758%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 80.92%EV -9.08%E -8.26%K -90.85%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.72%EV -23.62%E -3.37%K -3.94%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-23 09:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.36%EV -9.86%E -0.704%K -0.758%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 80.92%EV -9.08%E -8.26%K -90.85%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.72%EV -23.62%E -3.37%K -3.94%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-23 09:20
LiveScore Bet🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.36%EV -9.86%E -0.704%K -0.758%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 80.92%EV -9.08%E -8.26%K -90.85%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.72%EV -23.62%E -3.37%K -3.94%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-23 09:19
ATG (SE)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.36%EV -9.86%E -0.704%K -0.758%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 80.92%EV -9.08%E -8.26%K -90.85%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.72%EV -23.62%E -3.37%K -3.94%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-23 09:19
Svenska Spel🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.36%EV -9.86%E -0.704%K -0.758%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 80.92%EV -9.08%E -8.26%K -90.85%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.72%EV -23.62%E -3.37%K -3.94%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-23 09:19
BoyleSports🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.39%EV -22.74%E -1.89%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 79.93%EV -8.26%E -7.44%K -75.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.67%EV -23.62%E -3.37%K -3.94%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-23 14:30
Bet Victor🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 7.91%EV -32.39%E -3.09%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 77.64%EV -11.56%E -10.81%K -165.20%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 14.45%EV -37.26%E -6.48%K -7.84%G +0.000%20.4%2026-10-23 14:30
betano_uk🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 7.91%EV -32.39%E -3.09%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 77.64%EV -11.56%E -10.81%K -165.20%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 14.45%EV -37.26%E -6.48%K -7.84%G +0.000%20.4%2026-10-23 14:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎10.50I 9.52%NM 8.15%1.09I 91.74%NM 78.49%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.37%16.9%2026-10-23 15:50