The School of Odds
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RB Leipzig v Bayer Leverkusen

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 14:00 UTC

Final: RB Leipzig 0–2 Bayer Leverkusen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

RB Leipzig (Local)

Prediction 19.42%5.15fair odd
EV -4.83%
Edge -0.985%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.45%19.42%19.90%20.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.424.404.9025.00%22.60%22.73%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bayer Leverkusen (Visit)

Prediction 58.19%1.72fair odd
EV -6.89%
Edge -4.31%
Kelly -11.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.45%58.19%57.89%59.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.581.601.6066.67%63.29%62.50%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.38%4.47fair odd
EV -6.66%
Edge -1.60%
Kelly -2.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.06%22.38%22.21%23.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.823.754.1728.57%26.19%26.67%23.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: RB Leipzig (Local): 19.42%; Bayer Leverkusen (Visit): 58.19%; Draw: 22.38%. For RB Leipzig (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.15. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.90, with an expected value of -4.83%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.45%EV -4.83%E -0.985%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 59.49%EV -11.54%E -7.60%K -22.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.06%EV -8.23%E -2.01%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-23 13:40
1xBet🎯4.81I 20.79%NM 18.88%EV -6.57%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.97%EV -10.38%E -6.74%K -19.22%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -8.23%E -2.01%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-23 13:40
Pinnacle🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 19.91%EV -9.68%E -2.08%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.88%EV -6.89%E -4.31%K -11.48%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.21%EV -6.66%E -1.60%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-23 13:50
Unibet (UK)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -10.65%E -2.32%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -6.89%E -4.31%K -11.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -10.47%E -2.62%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-23 13:38
Unibet (NL)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -14.54%E -3.30%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.86%EV -6.89%E -4.31%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -16.07%E -4.28%K -5.84%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-23 00:25
LiveScore Bet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -14.54%E -3.30%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.86%EV -6.89%E -4.31%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -16.07%E -4.28%K -5.84%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-23 00:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -14.54%E -3.30%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.86%EV -6.89%E -4.31%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -16.07%E -4.28%K -5.84%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-23 00:24
Grosvenor🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -14.54%E -3.30%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.86%EV -6.89%E -4.31%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -16.07%E -4.28%K -5.84%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-23 00:24
Unibet (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -14.54%E -3.30%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.86%EV -6.89%E -4.31%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -16.07%E -4.28%K -5.84%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-23 00:24
Virgin Bet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -14.54%E -3.30%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.86%EV -6.89%E -4.31%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -16.07%E -4.28%K -5.84%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-23 00:24
Unibet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -14.54%E -3.30%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.86%EV -6.89%E -4.31%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -16.07%E -4.28%K -5.84%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-23 00:25
ATG (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -14.54%E -3.30%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.86%EV -6.89%E -4.31%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -16.07%E -4.28%K -5.84%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-23 00:25
Svenska Spel🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -14.54%E -3.30%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.86%EV -6.89%E -4.31%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -16.07%E -4.28%K -5.84%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-23 00:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.76%EV -15.90%E -3.67%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.19%EV -6.89%E -4.31%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.05%EV -12.71%E -3.26%K -4.38%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-23 13:40
Coral🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.76%EV -15.90%E -3.67%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.19%EV -6.89%E -4.31%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.05%EV -12.71%E -3.26%K -4.38%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-23 13:40
betano_uk🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 20.79%EV -22.31%E -5.58%K -7.44%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 55.45%EV -12.71%E -8.47%K -25.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.76%EV -21.66%E -6.19%K -8.66%G +0.000%20.2%2026-08-23 13:49
Bet Victor🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 20.79%EV -22.31%E -5.58%K -7.44%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 55.45%EV -12.71%E -8.47%K -25.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.76%EV -21.66%E -6.19%K -8.66%G +0.000%20.2%2026-08-23 13:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.