The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

RB Leipzig v Bayer Leverkusen

2026-08-23 14:00 UTC — Frauen-Bundesliga

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

RB Leipzig (Local)

Prediction 26.00%3.85fair odd
EV -5.09%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -1.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.88%26.00%26.00%26.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.553.503.6528.57%28.17%28.57%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bayer Leverkusen (Visit)

Prediction 49.06%2.04fair odd
EV -7.76%
Edge -4.13%
Kelly -8.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.89%49.06%49.06%50.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.841.831.8855.56%54.45%54.64%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.93%4.01fair odd
EV -7.74%
Edge -2.09%
Kelly -2.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.68%24.93%24.93%25.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.663.683.7027.78%27.32%27.17%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: RB Leipzig (Local): 26.00%; Bayer Leverkusen (Visit): 49.06%; Draw: 24.93%. For RB Leipzig (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.85. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.65, with an expected value of -5.09%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.88%EV -5.09%E -1.40%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.45%EV -11.69%E -6.49%K -14.61%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.68%EV -8.24%E -2.24%K -3.07%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-22 11:05
Unibet (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -8.99%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.89%EV -7.76%E -4.13%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -7.74%E -2.09%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-22 08:04
Tipico (DE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -8.99%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -10.21%E -5.58%K -12.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -10.23%E -2.84%K -3.94%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-22 09:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.