The School of Odds
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Hamburger SV v Union Berlin

Kickoff: 2026-05-01 13:00 UTC

Final: Hamburger SV 0–1 Union Berlin

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hamburger SV (Local)

Prediction 28.83%3.47fair odd
EV -7.75%
Edge -2.42%
Kelly -3.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.19%28.83%28.94%31.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.922.803.2035.71%34.23%35.71%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Union Berlin (Visit)

Prediction 45.25%2.21fair odd
EV -5.87%
Edge -2.82%
Kelly -5.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.81%45.25%45.04%46.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.872.002.022.0853.48%50.06%49.50%48.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.92%3.86fair odd
EV -4.63%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -1.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.58%25.92%26.02%26.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.513.603.6830.77%28.51%27.78%27.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hamburger SV (Local): 28.83%; Union Berlin (Visit): 45.25%; Draw: 25.92%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.86. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.68, with an expected value of -4.63%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.19%EV -7.75%E -2.42%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.75%EV -12.66%E -6.56%K -13.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.06%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-01 11:20
Pinnacle🎯3.13I 31.95%NM 29.64%EV -9.76%E -3.12%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.60%EV -5.87%E -2.82%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-01 11:20
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -10.63%E -3.43%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -9.49%E -4.75%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -14.48%E -4.39%K -6.29%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-01 11:19
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -10.63%E -3.43%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -9.49%E -4.75%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -14.48%E -4.39%K -6.29%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-01 11:20
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -10.63%E -3.43%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -9.49%E -4.75%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -14.48%E -4.39%K -6.29%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-01 11:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -10.63%E -3.43%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -9.49%E -4.75%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -14.48%E -4.39%K -6.29%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-01 11:20
1xBet🎯3.06I 32.68%NM 29.68%EV -11.78%E -3.85%K -5.72%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 45.64%EV -9.94%E -5.00%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.68%EV -4.63%E -1.26%K -1.73%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-01 12:05
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.61%EV -19.28%E -6.88%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.81%EV -8.59%E -4.25%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.58%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-01 00:00
Grosvenor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.61%EV -19.28%E -6.88%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.81%EV -8.59%E -4.25%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.58%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-01 00:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.61%EV -19.28%E -6.88%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.81%EV -8.59%E -4.25%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.58%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-30 23:59
LiveScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.61%EV -19.28%E -6.88%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.81%EV -8.59%E -4.25%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.58%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-30 23:59
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.61%EV -19.28%E -6.88%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.81%EV -8.59%E -4.25%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.58%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-01 00:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.61%EV -19.28%E -6.88%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.81%EV -8.59%E -4.25%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.58%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-01 00:00
LeoVegas🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.61%EV -19.28%E -6.88%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.81%EV -8.59%E -4.25%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.58%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-30 23:59
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.61%EV -19.28%E -6.88%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.81%EV -8.59%E -4.25%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.58%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-30 23:59
Svenska Spel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.61%EV -19.28%E -6.88%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.81%EV -8.59%E -4.25%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.58%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-30 23:59
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.40%EV -19.28%E -6.88%K -10.71%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 44.57%EV -13.56%E -7.10%K -14.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.04%EV -11.88%E -3.50%K -4.95%G +0.000%17.5%2026-05-01 11:20
Bet Victor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 29.77%EV -19.28%E -6.88%K -10.71%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 44.58%EV -15.37%E -8.22%K -17.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.65%EV -15.77%E -4.85%K -7.01%G +0.000%20.0%2026-05-01 11:18
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.