The School of Odds
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Hamburger SV v Union Berlin

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 16:00 UTC

Final: Hamburger SV 4–4 Union Berlin

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hamburger SV (Local)

Prediction 22.32%4.48fair odd
EV -2.69%
Edge -0.617%
Kelly -0.800%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.41%22.47%22.32%25.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.813.704.3630.30%26.23%27.03%22.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Union Berlin (Visit)

Prediction 53.63%1.86fair odd
EV -4.54%
Edge -2.55%
Kelly -5.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.32%53.73%53.63%55.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.701.721.7863.69%58.84%58.14%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.05%4.16fair odd
EV -3.79%
Edge -0.947%
Kelly -1.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.34%23.80%24.05%24.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.643.604.0029.41%27.48%27.78%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hamburger SV (Local): 22.32%; Union Berlin (Visit): 53.63%; Draw: 24.05%. For Hamburger SV (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.48. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.36, with an expected value of -2.69%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.36I 22.94%NM 21.41%EV -2.69%E -0.617%K -0.800%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.59%EV -8.30%E -4.85%K -11.69%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.00%EV -6.43%E -1.65%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-25 15:56
Pinnacle🎯4.29I 23.31%NM 21.61%EV -4.25%E -0.991%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.86%EV -9.37%E -5.54%K -13.58%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.53%EV -5.23%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-25 15:57
Tipico (DE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80%EV -8.49%E -2.07%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.86%EV -14.20%E -8.87%K -23.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -3.79%E -0.947%K -1.26%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-25 15:57
Unibet (UK)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -12.96%E -3.32%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.78%EV -4.54%E -2.55%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -9.80%E -2.61%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 12:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.84%EV -12.96%E -3.32%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.41%EV -8.83%E -5.20%K -12.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -13.41%E -3.72%K -5.16%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-25 15:50
888sport🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.84%EV -12.96%E -3.32%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.41%EV -8.83%E -5.20%K -12.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -13.41%E -3.72%K -5.16%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-25 15:50
William Hill🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.84%EV -12.96%E -3.32%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.41%EV -8.83%E -5.20%K -12.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -13.41%E -3.72%K -5.16%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-25 15:49
888sport (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.84%EV -12.96%E -3.32%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.41%EV -8.83%E -5.20%K -12.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -13.41%E -3.72%K -5.16%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-25 15:50
LiveScore Bet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.00%EV -17.42%E -4.71%K -6.45%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.33%EV -7.22%E -4.18%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -13.41%E -3.72%K -5.16%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-25 15:57
Unibet (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.00%EV -17.42%E -4.71%K -6.45%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.33%EV -7.22%E -4.18%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -13.41%E -3.72%K -5.16%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-25 15:56
Unibet (NL)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.00%EV -17.42%E -4.71%K -6.45%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.33%EV -7.22%E -4.18%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -13.41%E -3.72%K -5.16%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-25 15:57
Virgin Bet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.00%EV -17.42%E -4.71%K -6.45%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.33%EV -7.22%E -4.18%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -13.41%E -3.72%K -5.16%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-25 15:56
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.00%EV -17.42%E -4.71%K -6.45%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.33%EV -7.22%E -4.18%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -13.41%E -3.72%K -5.16%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-25 15:56
Grosvenor🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.00%EV -17.42%E -4.71%K -6.45%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.33%EV -7.22%E -4.18%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -13.41%E -3.72%K -5.16%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-25 15:56
Unibet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.00%EV -17.42%E -4.71%K -6.45%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.33%EV -7.22%E -4.18%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -13.41%E -3.72%K -5.16%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-25 15:56
Svenska Spel🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.00%EV -17.42%E -4.71%K -6.45%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.33%EV -7.22%E -4.18%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -13.41%E -3.72%K -5.16%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-25 15:57
ATG (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.00%EV -17.42%E -4.71%K -6.45%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.33%EV -7.22%E -4.18%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -13.41%E -3.72%K -5.16%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-25 15:57
betano_uk🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 22.50%EV -17.42%E -4.71%K -6.45%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 53.02%EV -15.80%E -10.07%K -27.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.48%EV -18.22%E -5.36%K -7.59%G +0.000%20.1%2026-10-25 15:56
Bet Victor🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 22.50%EV -17.42%E -4.71%K -6.45%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 53.02%EV -15.80%E -10.07%K -27.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.48%EV -18.22%E -5.36%K -7.59%G +0.000%20.1%2026-10-25 15:57
BoyleSports🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 25.92%EV -26.35%E -7.98%K -11.46%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 50.32%EV -8.83%E -5.20%K -12.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.76%EV -13.41%E -3.72%K -5.16%G +0.000%16.9%2026-10-25 15:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎3.70I 27.03%NM 23.85%1.72I 58.14%NM 51.30%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.85%13.3%2026-10-25 15:35