The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Hamburger SV v RB Leipzig

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 10:00 UTC

Final: Hamburger SV 1–1 RB Leipzig

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hamburger SV (Local)

Prediction 29.47%3.39fair odd
EV -8.65%
Edge -2.79%
Kelly -4.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.21%29.47%29.47%30.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.932.903.1036.36%34.08%34.48%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

RB Leipzig (Visit)

Prediction 43.99%2.27fair odd
EV -8.07%
Edge -3.86%
Kelly -7.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.77%43.99%43.99%44.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.032.052.0951.28%49.37%48.78%47.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.55%3.77fair odd
EV -6.56%
Edge -1.86%
Kelly -2.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.55%26.55%26.55%26.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.373.463.5232.26%29.69%28.90%28.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hamburger SV (Local): 29.47%; RB Leipzig (Visit): 43.99%; Draw: 26.55%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.77. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.52, with an expected value of -6.56%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -8.65%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -9.83%E -4.79%K -9.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -9.74%E -2.87%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-04 12:10
Pinnacle🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 29.73%EV -9.24%E -3.00%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 43.81%EV -8.07%E -3.86%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.46%EV -8.15%E -2.36%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-04 10:50
1xBet🎯3.06I 32.68%NM 29.68%EV -9.83%E -3.21%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.52%EV -10.27%E -5.03%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 25.80%EV -6.56%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-04 11:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -14.55%E -5.02%K -7.66%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.62%EV -9.83%E -4.79%K -9.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.55%EV -7.09%E -2.03%K -2.84%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-04 10:50
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -14.55%E -5.02%K -7.66%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.62%EV -9.83%E -4.79%K -9.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.55%EV -7.09%E -2.03%K -2.84%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-04 10:49
betano_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 30.33%EV -18.97%E -6.90%K -10.84%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 42.77%EV -14.22%E -7.29%K -14.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.90%EV -17.71%E -5.71%K -8.43%G +0.000%19.9%2026-09-04 10:48
Bet Victor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 30.33%EV -18.97%E -6.90%K -10.84%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 42.77%EV -14.22%E -7.29%K -14.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.90%EV -17.71%E -5.71%K -8.43%G +0.000%19.9%2026-09-04 10:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.