The School of Odds
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Hamburger SV v 1. FC Nürnberg

Kickoff: 2026-09-20 12:00 UTC

Final: Hamburger SV 5–1 1. FC Nürnberg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hamburger SV (Local)

Prediction 31.95%3.13fair odd
EV -4.15%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -2.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.74%31.95%31.81%33.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.862.853.0037.04%34.97%35.09%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Nürnberg (Visit)

Prediction 43.93%2.28fair odd
EV -7.74%
Edge -3.68%
Kelly -7.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.71%43.93%44.43%44.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.082.082.082.1048.08%48.04%48.08%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.11%4.15fair odd
EV -5.72%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -1.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.70%24.11%23.76%26.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.503.403.9129.41%28.55%29.41%25.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hamburger SV (Local): 31.95%; 1. FC Nürnberg (Visit): 43.93%; Draw: 24.11%. For Hamburger SV (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.13. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.00, with an expected value of -4.15%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -4.15%E -1.38%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.34%EV -8.62%E -4.14%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.92%EV -10.78%E -2.91%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-20 11:29
Pinnacle🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.74%EV -6.70%E -2.30%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.56%EV -8.62%E -4.14%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 23.70%EV -5.72%E -1.46%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-20 11:45
1xBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.07%EV -7.34%E -2.53%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.32%EV -8.62%E -4.14%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 25.60%EV -15.12%E -4.30%K -6.00%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-20 11:51
Grosvenor🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.17%EV -8.94%E -3.14%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 42.71%EV -8.62%E -4.14%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.13%EV -18.01%E -5.30%K -7.51%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-20 11:29
LiveScore Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.17%EV -8.94%E -3.14%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 42.71%EV -8.62%E -4.14%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.13%EV -18.01%E -5.30%K -7.51%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-20 11:29
Virgin Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.17%EV -8.94%E -3.14%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 42.71%EV -8.62%E -4.14%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.13%EV -18.01%E -5.30%K -7.51%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-20 11:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.17%EV -8.94%E -3.14%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 42.71%EV -8.62%E -4.14%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.13%EV -18.01%E -5.30%K -7.51%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-20 11:29
Unibet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.17%EV -8.94%E -3.14%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 42.71%EV -8.62%E -4.14%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.13%EV -18.01%E -5.30%K -7.51%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-20 11:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.17%EV -8.94%E -3.14%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 42.71%EV -8.62%E -4.14%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.13%EV -18.01%E -5.30%K -7.51%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-20 11:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.17%EV -8.94%E -3.14%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 42.71%EV -8.62%E -4.14%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.13%EV -18.01%E -5.30%K -7.51%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-20 11:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.17%EV -8.94%E -3.14%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 42.71%EV -8.62%E -4.14%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.13%EV -18.01%E -5.30%K -7.51%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-20 11:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.17%EV -8.94%E -3.14%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 42.71%EV -8.62%E -4.14%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.13%EV -18.01%E -5.30%K -7.51%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-20 11:29
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.38%EV -13.73%E -5.09%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.91%EV -7.74%E -3.68%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.71%EV -8.37%E -2.20%K -2.99%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-20 11:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.86I 34.97%NM 31.39%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.01%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.60%11.4%2026-09-20 11:40