The School of Odds
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Hamburger SV v 1. FC Nürnberg

2026-09-20 12:00 UTC — Frauen-Bundesliga

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hamburger SV (Local)

Prediction 36.31%2.75fair odd
EV -7.41%
Edge -2.91%
Kelly -4.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.97%36.31%36.24%39.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.332.252.5544.44%43.00%44.44%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Nürnberg (Visit)

Prediction 37.98%2.63fair odd
EV +0.636%
Edge +0.240%
Kelly +0.386%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.41%37.98%38.31%38.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.572.652.6542.02%38.85%37.74%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.71%3.89fair odd
EV -5.63%
Edge -1.53%
Kelly -2.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.98%25.71%25.45%27.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.333.253.6730.77%30.00%30.77%27.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Hamburger SV (Local): 36.31%; 1. FC Nürnberg (Visit): 37.98%; Draw: 25.71%. For 1. FC Nürnberg (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.63. 9 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.65, producing a positive expected value of +0.636%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.35%EV -18.30%E -8.13%K -14.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.41%EV +0.636%E +0.240%K +0.386%G +0.002%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.24%EV -16.43%E -5.06%K -7.30%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-17 12:09
LiveScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.35%EV -18.30%E -8.13%K -14.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.41%EV +0.636%E +0.240%K +0.386%G +0.002%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.24%EV -16.43%E -5.06%K -7.30%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-17 12:09
Virgin Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.35%EV -18.30%E -8.13%K -14.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.41%EV +0.636%E +0.240%K +0.386%G +0.002%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.24%EV -16.43%E -5.06%K -7.30%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-17 12:09
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.35%EV -18.30%E -8.13%K -14.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.41%EV +0.636%E +0.240%K +0.386%G +0.002%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.24%EV -16.43%E -5.06%K -7.30%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-17 12:09
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.35%EV -18.30%E -8.13%K -14.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.41%EV +0.636%E +0.240%K +0.386%G +0.002%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.24%EV -16.43%E -5.06%K -7.30%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-17 12:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.35%EV -18.30%E -8.13%K -14.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.41%EV +0.636%E +0.240%K +0.386%G +0.002%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.24%EV -16.43%E -5.06%K -7.30%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-17 12:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.35%EV -18.30%E -8.13%K -14.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.41%EV +0.636%E +0.240%K +0.386%G +0.002%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.24%EV -16.43%E -5.06%K -7.30%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-17 12:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.35%EV -18.30%E -8.13%K -14.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.41%EV +0.636%E +0.240%K +0.386%G +0.002%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.24%EV -16.43%E -5.06%K -7.30%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-17 12:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.35%EV -18.30%E -8.13%K -14.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.41%EV +0.636%E +0.240%K +0.386%G +0.002%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.24%EV -16.43%E -5.06%K -7.30%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-17 12:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -6.96%E -2.84%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -12.57%E -3.70%K -5.24%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-17 12:16
Pinnacle🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.67%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 38.35%EV -9.24%E -3.87%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 24.98%EV -5.63%E -1.53%K -2.11%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-17 11:01
1xBet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.67%EV -11.77%E -4.84%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 37.28%EV -9.24%E -3.87%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 26.05%EV -12.06%E -3.53%K -4.98%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-17 11:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.97%EV -7.41%E -2.91%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.54%EV -9.62%E -4.04%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -7.43%E -2.06%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-17 12:06
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.28I 43.86%NM 36.40%2.18I 45.87%NM 38.07%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.53%20.5%2026-09-17 12:36