The School of Odds
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FSV Mainz 05 v Eintracht Frankfurt

Kickoff: 2026-09-18 16:30 UTC

Final: FSV Mainz 05 2–3 Eintracht Frankfurt

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FSV Mainz 05 (Local)

Prediction 6.38%15.68fair odd
EV +2.01%
Edge +0.126%
Kelly +0.134%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 16.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.65%6.38%6.38%9.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0011.8811.5016.0010.00%8.42%8.70%6.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Eintracht Frankfurt (Visit)

Prediction 82.98%1.21fair odd
EV -4.57%
Edge -3.97%
Kelly -30.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.44%82.98%82.98%83.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.081.131.131.1592.59%88.78%88.50%86.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 10.64%9.40fair odd
EV -7.10%
Edge -0.813%
Kelly -0.918%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 8.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.64%10.64%10.64%13.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.406.956.408.7315.63%14.38%15.63%11.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FSV Mainz 05 (Local): 6.38%; Eintracht Frankfurt (Visit): 82.98%; Draw: 10.64%. For FSV Mainz 05 (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 15.68. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 16.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.01%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.65%EV +2.01%E +0.126%K +0.134%G +0.003%1.08I 92.59%NM 83.71%EV -10.38%E -9.61%K -129.73%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.64%EV -9.55%E -1.12%K -1.27%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-18 12:10
1xBet🎯13.70I 7.30%NM 6.50%EV -12.65%E -0.924%K -0.996%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 81.64%EV -9.55%E -8.76%K -106.10%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.86%EV -20.19%E -2.69%K -3.11%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-18 15:09
Pinnacle🎯13.09I 7.64%NM 7.10%EV -16.54%E -1.26%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 82.25%EV -6.23%E -5.51%K -47.92%G +0.000%8.73I 11.45%NM 10.65%EV -7.10%E -0.813%K -0.918%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-18 15:10
Unibet🎯11.50I 8.70%NM 7.71%EV -26.68%E -2.32%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 78.44%EV -6.23%E -5.51%K -47.92%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.85%EV -31.89%E -4.98%K -5.91%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-18 06:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯11.50I 8.70%NM 7.71%EV -26.68%E -2.32%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 78.44%EV -6.23%E -5.51%K -47.92%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.85%EV -31.89%E -4.98%K -5.91%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-18 06:05
Unibet (NL)🎯11.50I 8.70%NM 7.71%EV -26.68%E -2.32%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 78.44%EV -6.23%E -5.51%K -47.92%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.85%EV -31.89%E -4.98%K -5.91%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-18 06:05
Grosvenor🎯11.50I 8.70%NM 7.71%EV -26.68%E -2.32%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 78.44%EV -6.23%E -5.51%K -47.92%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.85%EV -31.89%E -4.98%K -5.91%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-18 06:04
Unibet (SE)🎯11.50I 8.70%NM 7.71%EV -26.68%E -2.32%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 78.44%EV -6.23%E -5.51%K -47.92%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.85%EV -31.89%E -4.98%K -5.91%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-18 06:05
LiveScore Bet🎯11.50I 8.70%NM 7.71%EV -26.68%E -2.32%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 78.44%EV -6.23%E -5.51%K -47.92%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.85%EV -31.89%E -4.98%K -5.91%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-18 06:04
Virgin Bet🎯11.50I 8.70%NM 7.71%EV -26.68%E -2.32%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 78.44%EV -6.23%E -5.51%K -47.92%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.85%EV -31.89%E -4.98%K -5.91%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-18 06:05
ATG (SE)🎯11.50I 8.70%NM 7.71%EV -26.68%E -2.32%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 78.44%EV -6.23%E -5.51%K -47.92%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.85%EV -31.89%E -4.98%K -5.91%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-18 06:04
Svenska Spel🎯11.50I 8.70%NM 7.71%EV -26.68%E -2.32%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 78.44%EV -6.23%E -5.51%K -47.92%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.85%EV -31.89%E -4.98%K -5.91%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-18 06:04
Coral🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.07%EV -36.24%E -3.62%K -4.03%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 78.84%EV -4.57%E -3.97%K -30.46%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -20.19%E -2.69%K -3.11%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-18 14:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.07%EV -36.24%E -3.62%K -4.03%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 78.84%EV -4.57%E -3.97%K -30.46%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -20.19%E -2.69%K -3.11%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-18 14:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.