Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FSV Mainz 05 v 1. FC Köln

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 12:00 UTC

Final: FSV Mainz 05 0–4 1. FC Köln

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

15%

64%

21%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FSV Mainz 05 (Local)

Prediction 15.10%6.62fair odd

EV +1.33%

Edge +0.198%

Kelly +0.233%

Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 6.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

13.50%15.10%15.10%15.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

6.006.256.036.7116.67%16.01%16.58%14.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Köln (Visit)

Prediction 63.74%1.57fair odd

EV -8.85%

Edge -6.19%

Kelly -20.58%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

63.50%63.74%63.74%66.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.371.411.421.4372.99%71.09%70.42%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.16%4.73fair odd

EV -5.86%

Edge -1.32%

Kelly -1.70%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

20.36%21.16%21.16%21.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.204.354.394.4523.81%23.01%22.78%22.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FSV Mainz 05 (Local): 15.10%; 1. FC Köln (Visit): 63.74%; Draw: 21.16%. For FSV Mainz 05 (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.62. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.71, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.33%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	6.71I 14.90%NM 13.50%EV +1.33%E +0.198%K +0.233%G +0.003%	1.37I 72.99%NM 66.14%EV -12.67%E -9.25%K -34.25%G +0.000%	4.45I 22.47%NM 20.36%EV -5.86%E -1.32%K -1.70%G +0.000%	10.4%	2026-09-04 14:35
Pinnacle🎯	6.03I 16.58%NM 15.17%EV -8.94%E -1.48%K -1.78%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 63.98%EV -8.85%E -6.19%K -20.58%G +0.000%	4.39I 22.78%NM 20.84%EV -7.13%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-09-04 14:00
Tipico (DE)🎯	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV -9.39%E -1.57%K -1.88%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 63.50%EV -9.49%E -6.68%K -22.58%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 21.47%EV -11.15%E -2.65%K -3.48%G +0.000%	10.9%	2026-09-04 14:05

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.