The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Eintracht Frankfurt v Union Berlin

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 12:00 UTC

Final: Eintracht Frankfurt 4–2 Union Berlin

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Eintracht Frankfurt (Local)

Prediction 70.26%1.42fair odd
EV -7.25%
Edge -5.50%
Kelly -22.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.60%70.23%70.26%72.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.281.281.3280.00%78.03%78.13%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Union Berlin (Visit)

Prediction 12.94%7.73fair odd
EV +0.296%
Edge +0.038%
Kelly +0.044%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.72%12.79%12.94%14.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.756.947.007.7517.39%14.40%14.29%12.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.80%5.95fair odd
EV -4.26%
Edge -0.748%
Kelly -0.907%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.82%16.98%16.80%18.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.405.055.005.7022.73%19.82%20.00%17.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Eintracht Frankfurt (Local): 70.26%; Union Berlin (Visit): 12.94%; Draw: 16.80%. For Union Berlin (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.73. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.296%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.07%EV -11.47%E -9.10%K -44.11%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.72%EV +0.296%E +0.038%K +0.044%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.22%EV -5.94%E -1.06%K -1.29%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-17 10:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.15%EV -12.17%E -9.74%K -48.69%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -2.94%E -0.392%K -0.452%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.82%EV -4.26%E -0.748%K -0.907%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-17 10:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -8.66%E -6.66%K -28.86%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -9.41%E -1.34%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -7.62%E -1.39%K -1.69%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-17 01:10
William Hill🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.66%EV -8.66%E -6.66%K -28.86%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -9.41%E -1.34%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.59%EV -19.38%E -4.04%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-17 10:40
888sport🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.66%EV -8.66%E -6.66%K -28.86%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -9.41%E -1.34%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.59%EV -19.38%E -4.04%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-17 10:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.66%EV -8.66%E -6.66%K -28.86%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -9.41%E -1.34%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.59%EV -19.38%E -4.04%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-17 10:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.66%EV -8.66%E -6.66%K -28.86%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -9.41%E -1.34%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.59%EV -19.38%E -4.04%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-17 10:39
Unibet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 69.50%EV -10.06%E -7.86%K -35.94%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.71%EV -9.41%E -1.34%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -16.02%E -3.20%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-14 13:26
LeoVegas🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 69.50%EV -10.06%E -7.86%K -35.94%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.71%EV -9.41%E -1.34%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -16.02%E -3.20%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-14 13:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 69.50%EV -10.06%E -7.86%K -35.94%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.71%EV -9.41%E -1.34%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -16.02%E -3.20%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-14 13:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 69.50%EV -10.06%E -7.86%K -35.94%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.71%EV -9.41%E -1.34%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -16.02%E -3.20%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-14 13:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 69.50%EV -10.06%E -7.86%K -35.94%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.71%EV -9.41%E -1.34%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -16.02%E -3.20%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-14 13:26
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 69.50%EV -10.06%E -7.86%K -35.94%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.71%EV -9.41%E -1.34%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -16.02%E -3.20%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-14 13:26
Grosvenor🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 69.50%EV -10.06%E -7.86%K -35.94%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.71%EV -9.41%E -1.34%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -16.02%E -3.20%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-14 13:26
Svenska Spel🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 69.50%EV -10.06%E -7.86%K -35.94%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.71%EV -9.41%E -1.34%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -16.02%E -3.20%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-14 13:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 69.50%EV -10.06%E -7.86%K -35.94%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.71%EV -9.41%E -1.34%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -16.02%E -3.20%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-14 13:25
Pinnacle🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.81%EV -7.25%E -5.50%K -22.67%G +0.000%6.92I 14.45%NM 13.32%EV -10.45%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.46I 18.32%NM 16.88%EV -8.29%E -1.52%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 10:40
BoyleSports🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 68.57%EV -12.17%E -9.74%K -48.69%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.29%EV -22.35%E -3.73%K -4.47%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.14%EV -16.02%E -3.20%K -4.00%G +0.000%16.7%2026-05-17 10:40
Bet Victor🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 66.60%EV -12.17%E -9.74%K -48.69%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 14.48%EV -25.59%E -4.45%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 18.92%EV -26.10%E -5.93%K -7.68%G +0.000%20.1%2026-05-17 00:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.