The School of Odds
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Eintracht Frankfurt v TSG Hoffenheim

Kickoff: 2026-09-13 14:00 UTC

Final: Eintracht Frankfurt 4–2 TSG Hoffenheim

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Eintracht Frankfurt (Local)

Prediction 62.24%1.61fair odd
EV -6.02%
Edge -3.99%
Kelly -11.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.47%62.24%61.52%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.461.501.5171.43%68.35%66.67%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TSG Hoffenheim (Visit)

Prediction 16.93%5.91fair odd
EV -3.51%
Edge -0.616%
Kelly -0.747%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.85%16.93%17.46%18.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.604.934.755.7021.74%20.28%21.05%17.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.83%4.80fair odd
EV -4.17%
Edge -0.907%
Kelly -1.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.64%20.83%21.02%22.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.174.104.6026.67%24.00%24.39%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Eintracht Frankfurt (Local): 62.24%; TSG Hoffenheim (Visit): 16.93%; Draw: 20.83%. For TSG Hoffenheim (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.91. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.70, with an expected value of -3.51%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.52%EV -6.02%E -3.99%K -11.80%G +0.000%5.32I 18.80%NM 17.46%EV -9.94%E -1.87%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.02%EV -7.92%E -1.79%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-13 12:10
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.47%EV -6.64%E -4.43%K -13.28%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.78%EV -19.59%E -4.12%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.76%EV -14.59%E -3.56%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-13 13:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.47%EV -6.64%E -4.43%K -13.28%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.78%EV -19.59%E -4.12%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.76%EV -14.59%E -3.56%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-13 13:05
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.47%EV -6.64%E -4.43%K -13.28%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.78%EV -19.59%E -4.12%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.76%EV -14.59%E -3.56%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-13 13:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.47%EV -6.64%E -4.43%K -13.28%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.78%EV -19.59%E -4.12%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.76%EV -14.59%E -3.56%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-13 13:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.47%EV -6.64%E -4.43%K -13.28%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.78%EV -19.59%E -4.12%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.76%EV -14.59%E -3.56%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-13 13:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.47%EV -6.64%E -4.43%K -13.28%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.78%EV -19.59%E -4.12%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.76%EV -14.59%E -3.56%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-13 13:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.47%EV -6.64%E -4.43%K -13.28%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.78%EV -19.59%E -4.12%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.76%EV -14.59%E -3.56%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-13 13:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.47%EV -6.64%E -4.43%K -13.28%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.78%EV -19.59%E -4.12%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.76%EV -14.59%E -3.56%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-13 13:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.47%EV -6.64%E -4.43%K -13.28%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.78%EV -19.59%E -4.12%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.76%EV -14.59%E -3.56%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-13 13:05
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -10.38%E -7.21%K -23.58%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.20%EV -11.13%E -2.12%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -6.25%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-12 18:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -10.38%E -7.21%K -23.58%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.20%EV -11.13%E -2.12%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -6.25%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-12 20:01
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -10.38%E -7.21%K -23.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -15.36%E -3.07%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -16.67%E -4.17%K -5.56%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-12 14:21
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -10.38%E -7.21%K -23.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -15.36%E -3.07%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -16.67%E -4.17%K -5.56%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-12 14:20
1xBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.48%EV -11.00%E -7.69%K -25.58%G +0.000%5.48I 18.25%NM 16.57%EV -7.23%E -1.32%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.95%EV -5.21%E -1.15%K -1.47%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-13 13:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.52%EV -12.86%E -9.19%K -32.16%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.85%EV -3.51%E -0.616%K -0.747%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.64%EV -4.17%E -0.907%K -1.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-13 11:05
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 61.42%EV -12.86%E -9.19%K -32.16%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.10%EV -19.59%E -4.12%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.47%EV -12.50%E -2.98%K -3.91%G +0.000%16.3%2026-09-13 11:05
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 59.61%EV -12.86%E -9.19%K -32.16%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.14%EV -22.13%E -4.81%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.25%EV -21.88%E -5.83%K -7.96%G +0.000%19.8%2026-09-13 13:00
betano_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 59.61%EV -12.86%E -9.19%K -32.16%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.14%EV -22.13%E -4.81%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.25%EV -21.88%E -5.83%K -7.96%G +0.000%19.8%2026-09-13 13:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.51I 66.23%NM 64.19%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.43%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.38%3.2%2026-09-13 13:56