The School of Odds
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Eintracht Frankfurt v SC Freiburg

Kickoff: 2026-02-23 17:02 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Eintracht Frankfurt (Local)

Prediction 65.40%1.53fair odd
EV -2.55%
Edge -1.71%
Kelly -5.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.15%65.40%65.41%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.371.431.431.4972.99%69.78%69.93%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SC Freiburg (Visit)

Prediction 15.80%6.33fair odd
EV -5.18%
Edge -0.864%
Kelly -1.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.30%15.80%15.77%17.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.105.335.206.0019.61%18.76%19.23%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.79%5.32fair odd
EV -6.97%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -1.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.39%18.79%18.82%20.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.354.524.404.9522.99%22.15%22.73%20.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Eintracht Frankfurt (Local): 65.40%; SC Freiburg (Visit): 15.80%; Draw: 18.79%. For Eintracht Frankfurt (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.53. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.49, with an expected value of -2.55%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.94%EV -2.55%E -1.71%K -5.20%G +0.000%5.48I 18.25%NM 17.11%EV -13.40%E -2.45%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.95%EV -11.67%E -2.48%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-23 16:59
Svenska Spel🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.17%EV -5.17%E -3.56%K -11.48%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.34%EV -17.82%E -3.43%K -4.24%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.49%EV -17.30%E -3.93%K -5.09%G +0.000%10.9%2026-02-23 17:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.17%EV -5.17%E -3.56%K -11.48%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.34%EV -17.82%E -3.43%K -4.24%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.49%EV -17.30%E -3.93%K -5.09%G +0.000%10.9%2026-02-23 17:00
Pinnacle🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.84%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.23%G +0.000%5.73I 17.45%NM 16.30%EV -9.45%E -1.65%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.86%EV -6.97%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-23 16:59
Unibet (NL)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.44%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.23%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.13%EV -17.03%E -3.24%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.43%EV -17.30%E -3.93%K -5.09%G +0.000%11.2%2026-02-23 17:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.44%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.23%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.13%EV -17.03%E -3.24%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.43%EV -17.30%E -3.93%K -5.09%G +0.000%11.2%2026-02-23 17:00
Unibet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.15%EV -6.47%E -4.53%K -15.06%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.43%EV -19.40%E -3.80%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.43%EV -18.24%E -4.19%K -5.45%G +0.000%12.5%2026-02-23 17:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.15%EV -6.47%E -4.53%K -15.06%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.43%EV -19.40%E -3.80%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.43%EV -18.24%E -4.19%K -5.45%G +0.000%12.5%2026-02-23 17:00
Grosvenor🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.15%EV -6.47%E -4.53%K -15.06%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.43%EV -19.40%E -3.80%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.43%EV -18.24%E -4.19%K -5.45%G +0.000%12.5%2026-02-23 17:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.15%EV -6.47%E -4.53%K -15.06%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.43%EV -19.40%E -3.80%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.43%EV -18.24%E -4.19%K -5.45%G +0.000%12.5%2026-02-23 17:00
LeoVegas🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.15%EV -6.47%E -4.53%K -15.06%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.43%EV -19.40%E -3.80%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.43%EV -18.24%E -4.19%K -5.45%G +0.000%12.5%2026-02-23 17:00
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.57%EV -8.44%E -6.03%K -21.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -5.18%E -0.864%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -9.79%E -2.04%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-23 16:57
Tipico (DE)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 65.79%EV -10.40%E -7.59%K -28.10%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.81%EV -9.92%E -1.74%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.39%EV -7.91%E -1.61%K -2.03%G +0.000%10.9%2026-02-23 17:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.