The School of Odds
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Eintracht Frankfurt v Bayern Munich

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 15:55 UTC

Final: Eintracht Frankfurt 0–1 Bayern Munich

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Eintracht Frankfurt (Local)

Prediction 17.82%5.61fair odd
EV -1.97%
Edge -0.359%
Kelly -0.439%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.41%17.65%17.82%18.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.105.285.5022.22%19.62%18.96%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bayern Munich (Visit)

Prediction 62.00%1.61fair odd
EV -4.52%
Edge -2.93%
Kelly -8.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.26%61.74%62.00%63.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.441.441.5473.53%69.23%69.44%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.18%4.96fair odd
EV -7.19%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -2.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.81%20.61%20.18%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.254.204.6025.64%23.53%23.81%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Eintracht Frankfurt (Local): 17.82%; Bayern Munich (Visit): 62.00%; Draw: 20.18%. For Eintracht Frankfurt (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.61. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.50, with an expected value of -1.97%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.41%EV -1.97%E -0.359%K -0.439%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 63.54%EV -11.96%E -8.42%K -28.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.05%EV -9.21%E -2.05%K -2.63%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-03 15:35
1xBet🎯5.45I 18.35%NM 17.18%EV -2.86%E -0.526%K -0.644%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.79%EV -4.52%E -2.93%K -8.37%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.03%EV -14.25%E -3.35%K -4.39%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-03 15:54
Unibet🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 16.83%EV -5.54%E -1.04%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 61.94%EV -10.72%E -7.44%K -24.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.24%EV -15.26%E -3.63%K -4.77%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-30 16:04
Virgin Bet🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 16.83%EV -5.54%E -1.04%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 61.94%EV -10.72%E -7.44%K -24.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.24%EV -15.26%E -3.63%K -4.77%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-30 16:05
LiveScore Bet🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 16.83%EV -5.54%E -1.04%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 61.94%EV -10.72%E -7.44%K -24.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.24%EV -15.26%E -3.63%K -4.77%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-30 16:10
Grosvenor🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 16.76%EV -5.54%E -1.04%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 62.10%EV -11.34%E -7.93%K -26.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.14%EV -15.26%E -3.63%K -4.77%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-30 16:05
Unibet (NL)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 16.76%EV -5.54%E -1.04%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 62.10%EV -11.34%E -7.93%K -26.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.14%EV -15.26%E -3.63%K -4.77%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-30 16:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 16.76%EV -5.54%E -1.04%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 62.10%EV -11.34%E -7.93%K -26.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.14%EV -15.26%E -3.63%K -4.77%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-30 16:10
Unibet (SE)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 16.76%EV -5.54%E -1.04%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 62.10%EV -11.34%E -7.93%K -26.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.14%EV -15.26%E -3.63%K -4.77%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-30 16:10
Svenska Spel🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 16.76%EV -5.54%E -1.04%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 62.10%EV -11.34%E -7.93%K -26.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.14%EV -15.26%E -3.63%K -4.77%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-30 16:10
ATG (SE)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 16.76%EV -5.54%E -1.04%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 62.10%EV -11.34%E -7.93%K -26.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.14%EV -15.26%E -3.63%K -4.77%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-30 16:10
Unibet (UK)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.36%EV -6.43%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.84%EV -10.10%E -6.96%K -22.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.81%EV -7.19%E -1.56%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-03 15:10
Pinnacle🎯5.05I 19.80%NM 18.33%EV -9.99%E -1.98%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.32%EV -6.38%E -4.22%K -12.51%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.35%EV -8.20%E -1.80%K -2.31%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-03 15:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -10.89%E -2.18%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.54%EV -8.24%E -5.57%K -17.16%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.24%EV -9.21%E -2.05%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-03 15:11
Coral🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -10.89%E -2.18%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.54%EV -8.24%E -5.57%K -17.16%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.24%EV -9.21%E -2.05%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-03 15:10
888sport🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -14.45%E -3.01%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -7.00%E -4.67%K -14.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -19.30%E -4.82%K -6.43%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-03 15:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -14.45%E -3.01%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -7.00%E -4.67%K -14.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -19.30%E -4.82%K -6.43%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-03 15:54
William Hill🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.44%EV -14.45%E -3.01%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 61.45%EV -10.72%E -7.44%K -24.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.11%EV -11.23%E -2.55%K -3.30%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-03 15:15
888sport (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.44%EV -14.45%E -3.01%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 61.45%EV -10.72%E -7.44%K -24.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.11%EV -11.23%E -2.55%K -3.30%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-03 15:15
Bet Victor🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 17.51%EV -15.34%E -3.23%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 61.16%EV -15.68%E -11.53%K -43.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.33%EV -21.32%E -5.47%K -7.35%G +0.000%20.2%2026-10-03 15:50
betano_uk🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 17.51%EV -15.34%E -3.23%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 61.16%EV -15.68%E -11.53%K -43.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.33%EV -21.32%E -5.47%K -7.35%G +0.000%20.2%2026-10-03 15:54
BoyleSports🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 18.92%EV -19.80%E -4.40%K -5.66%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 60.81%EV -13.20%E -9.43%K -32.99%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.27%EV -15.26%E -3.63%K -4.77%G +0.000%17.5%2026-10-03 15:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.00%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.32%4.7%2026-10-03 15:51