The School of Odds
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Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 10:00 UTC

Final: Eintracht Frankfurt 2–0 1. FC Köln

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Eintracht Frankfurt (Local)

Prediction 69.27%1.44fair odd
EV -5.10%
Edge -3.72%
Kelly -13.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.82%69.26%69.27%71.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.341.361.3778.74%74.84%73.53%72.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Köln (Visit)

Prediction 13.32%7.51fair odd
EV +0.283%
Edge +0.038%
Kelly +0.043%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.31%13.38%13.32%15.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.085.757.5318.18%16.43%17.39%13.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.41%5.74fair odd
EV -4.24%
Edge -0.772%
Kelly -0.943%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.41%17.36%17.41%19.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.684.505.5023.81%21.36%22.22%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Eintracht Frankfurt (Local): 69.27%; 1. FC Köln (Visit): 13.32%; Draw: 17.41%. For 1. FC Köln (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.51. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.53, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.283%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.41%EV -8.56%E -6.49%K -26.75%G +0.000%7.53I 13.28%NM 12.34%EV +0.283%E +0.038%K +0.043%G +0.000%5.39I 18.55%NM 17.24%EV -6.16%E -1.14%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-22 09:35
1xBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.88%EV -9.95%E -7.65%K -33.15%G +0.000%7.38I 13.55%NM 12.31%EV -1.71%E -0.232%K -0.269%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.81%EV -11.21%E -2.20%K -2.73%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-22 09:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.06%EV -12.02%E -9.47%K -44.54%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.53%EV -4.11%E -0.571%K -0.663%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.41%EV -4.24%E -0.772%K -0.943%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-22 09:34
Unibet (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.67%EV -6.48%E -4.80%K -18.52%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.06%EV -13.43%E -2.07%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -12.95%E -2.59%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-22 09:39
BoyleSports🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 67.89%EV -10.64%E -8.25%K -36.69%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.60%EV -20.09%E -3.35%K -4.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.52%EV -12.95%E -2.59%K -3.24%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-22 09:40
Unibet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 64.82%EV -5.10%E -3.72%K -13.78%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.44%EV -23.42%E -4.07%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.73%EV -21.65%E -4.81%K -6.19%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-22 09:09
Virgin Bet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 64.82%EV -5.10%E -3.72%K -13.78%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.44%EV -23.42%E -4.07%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.73%EV -21.65%E -4.81%K -6.19%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-22 09:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 64.82%EV -5.10%E -3.72%K -13.78%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.44%EV -23.42%E -4.07%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.73%EV -21.65%E -4.81%K -6.19%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-22 09:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.99%EV -5.79%E -4.26%K -16.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.37%EV -23.42%E -4.07%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.64%EV -21.65%E -4.81%K -6.19%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-22 09:09
Grosvenor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.99%EV -5.79%E -4.26%K -16.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.37%EV -23.42%E -4.07%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.64%EV -21.65%E -4.81%K -6.19%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-22 09:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.99%EV -5.79%E -4.26%K -16.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.37%EV -23.42%E -4.07%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.64%EV -21.65%E -4.81%K -6.19%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-22 09:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.99%EV -5.79%E -4.26%K -16.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.37%EV -23.42%E -4.07%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.64%EV -21.65%E -4.81%K -6.19%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-22 09:09
Svenska Spel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.99%EV -5.79%E -4.26%K -16.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.37%EV -23.42%E -4.07%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.64%EV -21.65%E -4.81%K -6.19%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-22 09:09
Unibet (NL)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.99%EV -5.79%E -4.26%K -16.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.37%EV -23.42%E -4.07%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.64%EV -21.65%E -4.81%K -6.19%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-22 09:10
Bet Victor🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 64.86%EV -10.64%E -8.25%K -36.69%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.21%EV -26.75%E -4.86%K -5.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 19.92%EV -26.88%E -6.40%K -8.40%G +0.000%19.5%2026-08-22 09:39
betano_uk🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 64.86%EV -10.64%E -8.25%K -36.69%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.21%EV -26.75%E -4.86%K -5.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 19.92%EV -26.88%E -6.40%K -8.40%G +0.000%19.5%2026-08-22 09:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.