The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Carl Zeiss Jena v VfL Wolfsburg

Kickoff: 2026-03-18 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Carl Zeiss Jena (Local)

Prediction 5.26%19.02fair odd
EV -4.12%
Edge -0.226%
Kelly -0.239%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 18.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.01%5.37%5.26%7.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0016.2517.0018.249.09%6.15%5.88%5.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

VfL Wolfsburg (Visit)

Prediction 85.17%1.17fair odd
EV -3.76%
Edge -3.33%
Kelly -28.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.55%84.88%85.17%86.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.071.061.1395.24%93.13%94.34%88.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.58%10.44fair odd
EV +4.28%
Edge +0.393%
Kelly +0.433%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 10.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.63%9.74%9.58%13.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.008.578.5010.8916.67%11.67%11.76%9.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carl Zeiss Jena (Local): 5.26%; VfL Wolfsburg (Visit): 85.17%; Draw: 9.58%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.44. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.89, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.28%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯18.24I 5.48%NM 5.15%EV -4.12%E -0.226%K -0.239%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 86.22%EV -7.17%E -6.58%K -79.64%G +0.000%10.89I 9.18%NM 8.63%EV +4.28%E +0.393%K +0.433%G +0.019%6.4%2026-03-18 16:10
Tipico (DE)🎯18.00I 5.56%NM 5.01%EV -5.38%E -0.299%K -0.317%G +0.000%1.05I 95.24%NM 85.96%EV -10.57%E -10.07%K -211.48%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.03%EV -4.24%E -0.424%K -0.471%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-18 16:08
888sport (SE)🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%EV -10.64%E -0.626%K -0.665%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 84.49%EV -8.02%E -7.42%K -100.24%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.14%EV -13.82%E -1.54%K -1.73%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-18 16:24
888sport🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%EV -10.64%E -0.626%K -0.665%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 84.49%EV -8.02%E -7.42%K -100.24%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.14%EV -13.82%E -1.54%K -1.73%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-18 16:24
William Hill🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%EV -10.64%E -0.626%K -0.665%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 84.49%EV -8.02%E -7.42%K -100.24%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.14%EV -13.82%E -1.54%K -1.73%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-18 16:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%EV -10.64%E -0.626%K -0.665%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 84.49%EV -8.02%E -7.42%K -100.24%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.14%EV -13.82%E -1.54%K -1.73%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-18 16:25
Unibet🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.25%EV -10.64%E -0.626%K -0.665%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 84.24%EV -9.72%E -9.17%K -162.04%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -18.61%E -2.19%K -2.48%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-18 16:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.25%EV -10.64%E -0.626%K -0.665%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 84.24%EV -9.72%E -9.17%K -162.04%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -18.61%E -2.19%K -2.48%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-18 16:29
LiveScore Bet🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.25%EV -10.64%E -0.626%K -0.665%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 84.24%EV -9.72%E -9.17%K -162.04%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -18.61%E -2.19%K -2.48%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-18 16:30
Unibet (SE)🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.25%EV -10.64%E -0.626%K -0.665%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 84.24%EV -9.72%E -9.17%K -162.04%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -18.61%E -2.19%K -2.48%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-18 16:30
Unibet (NL)🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.25%EV -10.64%E -0.626%K -0.665%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 84.24%EV -9.72%E -9.17%K -162.04%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -18.61%E -2.19%K -2.48%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-18 16:29
Virgin Bet🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.25%EV -10.64%E -0.626%K -0.665%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 84.24%EV -9.72%E -9.17%K -162.04%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -18.61%E -2.19%K -2.48%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-18 16:30
Grosvenor🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.25%EV -10.64%E -0.626%K -0.665%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 84.24%EV -9.72%E -9.17%K -162.04%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -18.61%E -2.19%K -2.48%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-18 16:29
LeoVegas🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.25%EV -10.64%E -0.626%K -0.665%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 84.24%EV -9.72%E -9.17%K -162.04%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -18.61%E -2.19%K -2.48%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-18 16:29
Svenska Spel🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.25%EV -10.64%E -0.626%K -0.665%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 84.24%EV -9.72%E -9.17%K -162.04%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -18.61%E -2.19%K -2.48%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-18 16:30
ATG (SE)🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.25%EV -10.64%E -0.626%K -0.665%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 84.24%EV -9.72%E -9.17%K -162.04%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -18.61%E -2.19%K -2.48%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-18 16:30
1xBet🎯17.10I 5.85%NM 5.47%EV -10.12%E -0.592%K -0.628%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 82.85%EV -3.76%E -3.33%K -28.93%G +0.000%8.02I 12.47%NM 11.67%EV -23.20%E -2.89%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-18 16:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.51%EV -36.92%E -3.08%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 81.22%EV -5.46%E -4.92%K -49.67%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.27%EV -23.39%E -2.92%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-18 16:24
Coral🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.51%EV -36.92%E -3.08%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 81.22%EV -5.46%E -4.92%K -49.67%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.27%EV -23.39%E -2.92%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-18 16:25
BoyleSports🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 5.97%EV -21.15%E -1.41%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 82.85%EV -8.02%E -7.42%K -100.24%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.18%EV -23.39%E -2.92%K -3.34%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-18 16:04
Bet Victor🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 7.57%EV -42.18%E -3.83%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 78.55%EV -9.72%E -9.17%K -162.04%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 13.88%EV -42.54%E -7.09%K -8.51%G +0.000%20.1%2026-03-18 16:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎25.00I 4.00%NM 3.89%1.12I 89.29%NM 86.85%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.26%2.8%2026-03-18 16:55