Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Carl Zeiss Jena v SC Freiburg

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 14:00 UTC

Final: Carl Zeiss Jena 1–5 SC Freiburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

26%

53%

21%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Carl Zeiss Jena (Local)

Prediction 26.40%3.79fair odd

EV +8.22%

Edge +2.01%

Kelly +2.65%

Growth +0.218%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

21.62%26.40%26.40%27.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.343.974.104.1029.94%25.17%24.39%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SC Freiburg (Visit)

Prediction 53.03%1.89fair odd

EV -5.61%

Edge -3.15%

Kelly -7.20%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

52.06%53.03%53.03%53.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.601.671.661.7862.50%59.98%60.24%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.58%4.86fair odd

EV -5.54%

Edge -1.21%

Kelly -1.54%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

20.19%20.58%20.58%25.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.303.683.554.5930.30%27.15%28.17%21.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carl Zeiss Jena (Local): 26.40%; SC Freiburg (Visit): 53.03%; Draw: 20.58%. For Carl Zeiss Jena (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.79. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.22%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Unibet🎯	4.10I 24.39%NM 21.62%EV +8.22%E +2.01%K +2.65%G +0.218%	1.66I 60.24%NM 53.41%EV -11.98%E -7.22%K -18.15%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 24.97%EV -26.95%E -7.59%K -10.57%G +0.000%	12.8%	2026-05-03 13:30
LeoVegas🎯	4.10I 24.39%NM 21.62%EV +8.22%E +2.01%K +2.65%G +0.218%	1.66I 60.24%NM 53.41%EV -11.98%E -7.22%K -18.15%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 24.97%EV -26.95%E -7.59%K -10.57%G +0.000%	12.8%	2026-05-03 13:25
LiveScore Bet🎯	4.10I 24.39%NM 21.62%EV +8.22%E +2.01%K +2.65%G +0.218%	1.66I 60.24%NM 53.41%EV -11.98%E -7.22%K -18.15%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 24.97%EV -26.95%E -7.59%K -10.57%G +0.000%	12.8%	2026-05-03 13:25
Virgin Bet🎯	4.10I 24.39%NM 21.62%EV +8.22%E +2.01%K +2.65%G +0.218%	1.66I 60.24%NM 53.41%EV -11.98%E -7.22%K -18.15%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 24.97%EV -26.95%E -7.59%K -10.57%G +0.000%	12.8%	2026-05-03 13:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	4.10I 24.39%NM 21.62%EV +8.22%E +2.01%K +2.65%G +0.218%	1.66I 60.24%NM 53.41%EV -11.98%E -7.22%K -18.15%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 24.97%EV -26.95%E -7.59%K -10.57%G +0.000%	12.8%	2026-05-03 13:25
Unibet (SE)🎯	4.10I 24.39%NM 21.62%EV +8.22%E +2.01%K +2.65%G +0.218%	1.66I 60.24%NM 53.41%EV -11.98%E -7.22%K -18.15%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 24.97%EV -26.95%E -7.59%K -10.57%G +0.000%	12.8%	2026-05-03 13:25
Grosvenor🎯	4.10I 24.39%NM 21.62%EV +8.22%E +2.01%K +2.65%G +0.218%	1.66I 60.24%NM 53.41%EV -11.98%E -7.22%K -18.15%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 24.97%EV -26.95%E -7.59%K -10.57%G +0.000%	12.8%	2026-05-03 13:25
Unibet (NL)🎯	4.10I 24.39%NM 21.62%EV +8.22%E +2.01%K +2.65%G +0.218%	1.66I 60.24%NM 53.41%EV -11.98%E -7.22%K -18.15%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 24.97%EV -26.95%E -7.59%K -10.57%G +0.000%	12.8%	2026-05-03 13:25
ATG (SE)🎯	4.10I 24.39%NM 21.62%EV +8.22%E +2.01%K +2.65%G +0.218%	1.66I 60.24%NM 53.41%EV -11.98%E -7.22%K -18.15%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 24.97%EV -26.95%E -7.59%K -10.57%G +0.000%	12.8%	2026-05-03 13:25
Svenska Spel🎯	4.10I 24.39%NM 21.62%EV +8.22%E +2.01%K +2.65%G +0.218%	1.66I 60.24%NM 53.41%EV -11.98%E -7.22%K -18.15%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 24.97%EV -26.95%E -7.59%K -10.57%G +0.000%	12.8%	2026-05-03 13:25
1xBet🎯	3.98I 25.13%NM 22.83%EV +5.05%E +1.27%K +1.70%G +0.086%	1.69I 59.17%NM 53.76%EV -10.39%E -6.15%K -15.05%G +0.000%	3.88I 25.77%NM 23.42%EV -20.15%E -5.19%K -7.00%G +0.000%	10.1%	2026-05-03 13:35
Bet Victor🎯	3.70I 27.03%NM 22.55%EV -2.34%E -0.632%K -0.866%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 52.16%EV -15.16%E -9.47%K -25.26%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 25.29%EV -32.09%E -9.72%K -13.95%G +0.000%	19.8%	2026-05-03 13:55
Tipico (DE)🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.04%EV -4.98%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 53.99%EV -11.45%E -6.85%K -17.09%G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26%NM 20.97%EV -11.51%E -2.68%K -3.49%G +0.000%	10.9%	2026-05-03 13:24
Pinnacle🎯	3.34I 29.94%NM 27.75%EV -11.84%E -3.54%K -5.06%G +0.000%	1.78I 56.18%NM 52.06%EV -5.61%E -3.15%K -7.20%G +0.000%	4.59I 21.79%NM 20.19%EV -5.54%E -1.21%K -1.54%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-05-03 13:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.