The School of Odds
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Carl Zeiss Jena v RB Leipzig

Kickoff: 2026-03-27 17:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Carl Zeiss Jena (Local)

Prediction 15.34%6.52fair odd
EV -7.98%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -1.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.03%15.34%15.34%17.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.285.106.0020.00%18.93%19.61%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

RB Leipzig (Visit)

Prediction 63.09%1.58fair odd
EV -3.47%
Edge -2.27%
Kelly -6.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.17%63.09%63.09%63.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.511.531.5371.43%66.29%65.36%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.57%4.64fair odd
EV -7.03%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -2.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.47%21.57%21.57%24.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.763.654.3128.57%26.58%27.40%23.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carl Zeiss Jena (Local): 15.34%; RB Leipzig (Visit): 63.09%; Draw: 21.57%. For RB Leipzig (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.58. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.53, with an expected value of -3.47%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV -7.98%E -1.33%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 63.50%EV -10.41%E -7.33%K -24.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.47%EV -9.41%E -2.24%K -2.94%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-27 16:40
1xBet🎯5.99I 16.69%NM 15.61%EV -8.13%E -1.36%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.92%EV -4.73%E -3.13%K -9.27%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 22.47%EV -10.27%E -2.47%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-27 17:25
Pinnacle🎯5.97I 16.75%NM 15.64%EV -8.44%E -1.41%K -1.70%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 62.68%EV -5.99%E -4.02%K -12.23%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 21.67%EV -7.03%E -1.63%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-27 17:20
Unibet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.45%EV -21.78%E -4.27%K -5.31%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.17%EV -3.47%E -2.27%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.38%EV -21.27%E -5.83%K -8.03%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-27 16:45
Grosvenor🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.45%EV -21.78%E -4.27%K -5.31%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.17%EV -3.47%E -2.27%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.38%EV -21.27%E -5.83%K -8.03%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-27 16:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.45%EV -21.78%E -4.27%K -5.31%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.17%EV -3.47%E -2.27%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.38%EV -21.27%E -5.83%K -8.03%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-27 16:45
LiveScore Bet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.45%EV -21.78%E -4.27%K -5.31%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.17%EV -3.47%E -2.27%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.38%EV -21.27%E -5.83%K -8.03%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-27 16:50
Unibet (NL)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.45%EV -21.78%E -4.27%K -5.31%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.17%EV -3.47%E -2.27%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.38%EV -21.27%E -5.83%K -8.03%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-27 16:50
Virgin Bet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.45%EV -21.78%E -4.27%K -5.31%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.17%EV -3.47%E -2.27%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.38%EV -21.27%E -5.83%K -8.03%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-27 16:49
LeoVegas🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.45%EV -21.78%E -4.27%K -5.31%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.17%EV -3.47%E -2.27%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.38%EV -21.27%E -5.83%K -8.03%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-27 16:45
Unibet (SE)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.45%EV -21.78%E -4.27%K -5.31%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.17%EV -3.47%E -2.27%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.38%EV -21.27%E -5.83%K -8.03%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-27 16:50
ATG (SE)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.45%EV -21.78%E -4.27%K -5.31%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.17%EV -3.47%E -2.27%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.38%EV -21.27%E -5.83%K -8.03%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-27 16:50
Svenska Spel🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.45%EV -21.78%E -4.27%K -5.31%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.17%EV -3.47%E -2.27%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.38%EV -21.27%E -5.83%K -8.03%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-27 16:50
Bet Victor🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 16.67%EV -23.32%E -4.66%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 59.52%EV -11.67%E -8.34%K -29.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.81%EV -24.50%E -7.00%K -9.80%G +0.000%20.0%2026-03-27 17:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.