The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Carl Zeiss Jena v Hamburger SV

Kickoff: 2026-03-15 13:02 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Carl Zeiss Jena (Local)

Prediction 25.98%3.85fair odd
EV -1.27%
Edge -0.335%
Kelly -0.455%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.82%25.58%25.98%28.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.453.453.8030.77%28.95%28.99%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hamburger SV (Visit)

Prediction 48.85%2.05fair odd
EV -6.70%
Edge -3.51%
Kelly -7.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.51%49.12%48.85%51.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.811.791.9157.80%55.26%55.87%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.17%3.97fair odd
EV +2.19%
Edge +0.539%
Kelly +0.716%
Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 4.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.03%25.30%25.17%26.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.563.654.0631.25%28.05%27.40%24.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carl Zeiss Jena (Local): 25.98%; Hamburger SV (Visit): 48.85%; Draw: 25.17%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.97. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.06, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.19%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.34I 29.94%NM 28.00%EV -13.22%E -3.96%K -5.65%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.96%EV -6.70%E -3.51%K -7.36%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.03%EV +2.19%E +0.539%K +0.716%G +0.016%6.9%2026-03-15 12:59
Pinnacle🎯3.61I 27.70%NM 25.87%EV -6.21%E -1.72%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.89%EV -6.70%E -3.51%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.24%EV -6.87%E -1.86%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-15 12:59
Tipico (DE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.82%EV -1.27%E -0.335%K -0.455%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.72%EV -14.51%E -8.29%K -19.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -6.87%E -1.86%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-15 13:00
Unibet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.82%EV -10.37%E -3.00%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 49.77%EV -12.56%E -7.02%K -15.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.41%EV -8.13%E -2.23%K -3.07%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-15 13:00
Virgin Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.82%EV -10.37%E -3.00%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 49.77%EV -12.56%E -7.02%K -15.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.41%EV -8.13%E -2.23%K -3.07%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-15 13:00
Unibet (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.82%EV -10.37%E -3.00%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 49.77%EV -12.56%E -7.02%K -15.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.41%EV -8.13%E -2.23%K -3.07%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-15 13:00
Unibet (NL)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.82%EV -10.37%E -3.00%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 49.77%EV -12.56%E -7.02%K -15.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.41%EV -8.13%E -2.23%K -3.07%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-15 13:00
Grosvenor🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.82%EV -10.37%E -3.00%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 49.77%EV -12.56%E -7.02%K -15.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.41%EV -8.13%E -2.23%K -3.07%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-15 13:00
LeoVegas🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.82%EV -10.37%E -3.00%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 49.77%EV -12.56%E -7.02%K -15.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.41%EV -8.13%E -2.23%K -3.07%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-15 13:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.82%EV -10.37%E -3.00%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 49.77%EV -12.56%E -7.02%K -15.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.41%EV -8.13%E -2.23%K -3.07%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-15 13:00
LiveScore Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.82%EV -10.37%E -3.00%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 49.77%EV -12.56%E -7.02%K -15.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.41%EV -8.13%E -2.23%K -3.07%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-15 13:00
Svenska Spel🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.82%EV -10.37%E -3.00%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 49.77%EV -12.56%E -7.02%K -15.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.41%EV -8.13%E -2.23%K -3.07%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-15 13:00
ATG (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.82%EV -10.37%E -3.00%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 49.77%EV -12.56%E -7.02%K -15.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.41%EV -8.13%E -2.23%K -3.07%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-15 13:00
Coral🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -6.47%E -1.80%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -12.07%E -6.71%K -15.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.91%E -3.40%K -4.76%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-15 13:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -6.47%E -1.80%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -12.07%E -6.71%K -15.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.91%E -3.40%K -4.76%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-15 13:00
BoyleSports🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 26.78%EV -15.56%E -4.79%K -6.92%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.35%EV -12.07%E -6.71%K -15.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.87%EV -11.91%E -3.40%K -4.76%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-15 13:00
888sport🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -11.67%E -3.43%K -4.86%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.51%EV -9.63%E -5.20%K -11.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -16.94%E -5.13%K -7.36%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-15 12:59
William Hill🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -11.67%E -3.43%K -4.86%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.51%EV -9.63%E -5.20%K -11.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -16.94%E -5.13%K -7.36%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-15 13:00
888sport (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -11.67%E -3.43%K -4.86%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.51%EV -9.63%E -5.20%K -11.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -16.94%E -5.13%K -7.36%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-15 12:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -11.67%E -3.43%K -4.86%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.51%EV -9.63%E -5.20%K -11.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -16.94%E -5.13%K -7.36%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-15 12:59
Bet Victor🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 25.68%EV -15.56%E -4.79%K -6.92%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 48.24%EV -15.49%E -8.95%K -21.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.08%EV -19.46%E -6.08%K -8.84%G +0.000%19.8%2026-03-15 12:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎3.55I 28.17%NM 25.97%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.78%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%8.5%2026-03-15 13:00