The School of Odds
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Bayern Munich v VfL Wolfsburg

Kickoff: 2026-02-22 15:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bayern Munich (Local)

Prediction 68.09%1.47fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -1.84%
Kelly -6.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.29%68.09%68.53%69.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.381.371.4376.92%72.44%72.99%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

VfL Wolfsburg (Visit)

Prediction 13.66%7.32fair odd
EV -4.36%
Edge -0.623%
Kelly -0.727%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.05%13.66%13.24%17.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.105.645.507.0019.61%17.75%18.18%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.25%5.48fair odd
EV +1.11%
Edge +0.201%
Kelly +0.245%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 5.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.91%18.25%18.23%20.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.654.605.5422.73%21.51%21.74%18.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bayern Munich (Local): 68.09%; VfL Wolfsburg (Visit): 13.66%; Draw: 18.25%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.48. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.54, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.11%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.38%EV -6.72%E -4.91%K -18.17%G +0.000%6.37I 15.70%NM 14.71%EV -12.97%E -2.04%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.54I 18.05%NM 16.91%EV +1.11%E +0.201%K +0.245%G +0.003%6.7%2026-02-22 15:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.39%EV -11.49%E -8.84%K -38.29%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.27%EV -7.10%E -1.04%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.35%EV -5.09%E -0.980%K -1.21%G +0.000%10.9%2026-02-22 15:15
Bet Victor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -9.45%E -7.10%K -28.62%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -4.36%E -0.623%K -0.727%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -8.74%E -1.75%K -2.19%G +0.000%9.5%2026-02-22 15:15
BoyleSports🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 66.83%EV -11.49%E -8.84%K -38.29%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.80%EV -24.86%E -4.52%K -5.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.38%EV -8.74%E -1.75%K -2.19%G +0.000%15.1%2026-02-22 15:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.80%EV -7.40%E -5.44%K -20.56%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.56%EV -21.44%E -3.73%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.64%EV -12.39%E -2.58%K -3.26%G +0.000%11.8%2026-02-22 14:14
Coral🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.80%EV -7.40%E -5.44%K -20.56%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.56%EV -21.44%E -3.73%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.64%EV -12.39%E -2.58%K -3.26%G +0.000%11.8%2026-02-22 14:15
William Hill🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 65.86%EV -8.08%E -5.99%K -23.10%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.82%EV -18.03%E -3.00%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.33%EV -16.04%E -3.49%K -4.46%G +0.000%12.5%2026-02-22 15:10
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.19%EV -9.45%E -7.10%K -28.62%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.67%EV -18.03%E -3.00%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.14%EV -16.04%E -3.49%K -4.46%G +0.000%13.6%2026-02-22 15:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.19%EV -9.45%E -7.10%K -28.62%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.67%EV -18.03%E -3.00%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.14%EV -16.04%E -3.49%K -4.46%G +0.000%13.6%2026-02-22 15:09
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.19%EV -9.45%E -7.10%K -28.62%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.67%EV -18.03%E -3.00%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.14%EV -16.04%E -3.49%K -4.46%G +0.000%13.6%2026-02-22 15:10
Unibet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.29%EV -2.64%E -1.84%K -6.13%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.47%EV -30.32%E -5.95%K -7.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.24%EV -19.69%E -4.48%K -5.79%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-22 15:15
Grosvenor🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.29%EV -2.64%E -1.84%K -6.13%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.47%EV -30.32%E -5.95%K -7.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.24%EV -19.69%E -4.48%K -5.79%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-22 15:14
Unibet (NL)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.29%EV -2.64%E -1.84%K -6.13%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.47%EV -30.32%E -5.95%K -7.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.24%EV -19.69%E -4.48%K -5.79%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-22 15:15
LeoVegas🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.29%EV -2.64%E -1.84%K -6.13%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.47%EV -30.32%E -5.95%K -7.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.24%EV -19.69%E -4.48%K -5.79%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-22 15:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.29%EV -2.64%E -1.84%K -6.13%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.47%EV -30.32%E -5.95%K -7.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.24%EV -19.69%E -4.48%K -5.79%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-22 15:14
LiveScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.29%EV -2.64%E -1.84%K -6.13%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.47%EV -30.32%E -5.95%K -7.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.24%EV -19.69%E -4.48%K -5.79%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-22 15:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.29%EV -2.64%E -1.84%K -6.13%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.47%EV -30.32%E -5.95%K -7.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.24%EV -19.69%E -4.48%K -5.79%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-22 15:14
ATG (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.29%EV -2.64%E -1.84%K -6.13%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.47%EV -30.32%E -5.95%K -7.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.24%EV -19.69%E -4.48%K -5.79%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-22 15:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.29%EV -2.64%E -1.84%K -6.13%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.47%EV -30.32%E -5.95%K -7.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.24%EV -19.69%E -4.48%K -5.79%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-22 15:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.37I 72.99%NM 68.94%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.89%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%5.9%2026-02-22 15:15