The School of Odds
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Bayern Munich v VfB Stuttgart

Kickoff: 2026-10-19 16:01 UTC

Final: Bayern Munich 5–0 VfB Stuttgart

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bayern Munich (Local)

Prediction 88.83%1.13fair odd
EV -5.84%
Edge -5.51%
Kelly -97.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.21%88.83%88.66%90.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.031.041.0699.01%96.99%96.62%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

VfB Stuttgart (Visit)

Prediction 3.82%26.17fair odd
EV +14.12%
Edge +0.473%
Kelly +0.489%
Growth +0.069%

assuming max odds 29.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.16%3.82%3.58%6.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
12.0022.1423.0029.878.33%4.52%4.35%3.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 7.35%13.61fair odd
EV +13.20%
Edge +0.857%
Kelly +0.916%
Growth +0.121%

assuming max odds 15.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.12%7.35%7.76%12.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.5011.0711.0015.4115.38%9.04%9.09%6.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bayern Munich (Local): 88.83%; VfB Stuttgart (Visit): 3.82%; Draw: 7.35%. For VfB Stuttgart (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 26.17. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 29.87, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.12%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.72%EV -7.61%E -7.32%K -190.33%G +0.000%29.87I 3.35%NM 3.16%EV +14.12%E +0.473%K +0.489%G +0.069%15.41I 6.49%NM 6.12%EV +13.20%E +0.857%K +0.916%G +0.121%6.0%2026-10-19 15:55
1xBet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.29%EV -5.84%E -5.51%K -97.28%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.46%EV -19.77%E -0.941%K -0.988%G +0.000%12.90I 7.75%NM 7.25%EV -5.24%E -0.406%K -0.440%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-19 15:59
William Hill🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.66%EV -6.72%E -6.40%K -134.50%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.58%EV -0.663%E -0.025%K -0.027%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -11.85%E -0.987%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-19 15:45
888sport🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.66%EV -6.72%E -6.40%K -134.50%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.58%EV -0.663%E -0.025%K -0.027%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -11.85%E -0.987%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-19 15:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.66%EV -6.72%E -6.40%K -134.50%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.58%EV -0.663%E -0.025%K -0.027%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -11.85%E -0.987%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-19 15:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.66%EV -6.72%E -6.40%K -134.50%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.58%EV -0.663%E -0.025%K -0.027%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -11.85%E -0.987%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-19 15:45
Coral🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 86.79%EV -5.84%E -5.51%K -97.28%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.84%EV -27.41%E -1.44%K -1.52%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.36%EV -19.19%E -1.74%K -1.92%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-19 15:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 86.79%EV -5.84%E -5.51%K -97.28%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.84%EV -27.41%E -1.44%K -1.52%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.36%EV -19.19%E -1.74%K -1.92%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-19 15:40
BoyleSports🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 87.12%EV -8.50%E -8.25%K -283.39%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.72%EV -27.41%E -1.44%K -1.52%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.16%EV -19.19%E -1.74%K -1.92%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-19 15:45
Unibet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 88.05%EV -10.28%E -10.18%K -1027.83%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.87%EV -12.12%E -0.527%K -0.551%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.08%EV -19.19%E -1.74%K -1.92%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 21:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 88.05%EV -10.28%E -10.18%K -1027.83%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.87%EV -12.12%E -0.527%K -0.551%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.08%EV -19.19%E -1.74%K -1.92%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 21:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 88.05%EV -10.28%E -10.18%K -1027.83%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.87%EV -12.12%E -0.527%K -0.551%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.08%EV -19.19%E -1.74%K -1.92%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 21:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 88.05%EV -10.28%E -10.18%K -1027.83%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.87%EV -12.12%E -0.527%K -0.551%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.08%EV -19.19%E -1.74%K -1.92%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 21:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 88.05%EV -10.28%E -10.18%K -1027.83%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.87%EV -12.12%E -0.527%K -0.551%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.08%EV -19.19%E -1.74%K -1.92%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 21:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 88.05%EV -10.28%E -10.18%K -1027.83%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.87%EV -12.12%E -0.527%K -0.551%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.08%EV -19.19%E -1.74%K -1.92%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 21:10
Grosvenor🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 88.05%EV -10.28%E -10.18%K -1027.83%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.87%EV -12.12%E -0.527%K -0.551%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.08%EV -19.19%E -1.74%K -1.92%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 21:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 88.05%EV -10.28%E -10.18%K -1027.83%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.87%EV -12.12%E -0.527%K -0.551%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.08%EV -19.19%E -1.74%K -1.92%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 21:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 88.05%EV -10.28%E -10.18%K -1027.83%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.87%EV -12.12%E -0.527%K -0.551%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.08%EV -19.19%E -1.74%K -1.92%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 21:05
betano_uk🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 80.21%EV -7.61%E -7.32%K -190.33%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 6.95%EV -54.15%E -4.51%K -4.92%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 12.83%EV -52.25%E -8.04%K -9.50%G +0.000%19.9%2026-10-19 15:50
Bet Victor🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 80.21%EV -7.61%E -7.32%K -190.33%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 6.95%EV -54.15%E -4.51%K -4.92%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 12.83%EV -52.25%E -8.04%K -9.50%G +0.000%19.9%2026-10-19 15:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.04I 96.15%NM 86.35%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.49%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.16%11.4%2026-10-19 16:00