The School of Odds
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Bayern Munich v SC Freiburg

Kickoff: 2026-09-06 14:00 UTC

Final: Bayern Munich 4–1 SC Freiburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bayern Munich (Local)

Prediction 90.11%1.11fair odd
EV -4.49%
Edge -4.23%
Kelly -74.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.05%90.11%90.11%90.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.021.011.0699.01%98.11%99.01%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SC Freiburg (Visit)

Prediction 4.39%22.77fair odd
EV +5.41%
Edge +0.225%
Kelly +0.235%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 24.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.76%4.39%4.39%6.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
12.0019.9621.0024.008.33%5.01%4.76%4.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 5.50%18.18fair odd
EV +4.27%
Edge +0.225%
Kelly +0.238%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 18.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.99%5.50%5.50%13.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.0011.5011.5018.9616.67%8.70%8.70%5.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bayern Munich (Local): 90.11%; SC Freiburg (Visit): 4.39%; Draw: 5.50%. For SC Freiburg (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 22.77. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 24.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.41%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 88.40%EV -8.09%E -7.93%K -404.47%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.76%EV +5.41%E +0.225%K +0.235%G +0.013%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.84%EV -36.75%E -3.20%K -3.50%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-06 13:40
Pinnacle🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.97%EV -6.29%E -6.05%K -157.18%G +0.000%23.42I 4.27%NM 4.04%EV +2.86%E +0.122%K +0.128%G +0.004%18.96I 5.27%NM 4.99%EV +4.27%E +0.225%K +0.238%G +0.010%5.7%2026-09-06 13:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 88.03%EV -8.99%E -8.90%K -899.04%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.23%EV -7.77%E -0.370%K -0.388%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.73%EV -36.75%E -3.20%K -3.50%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-05 23:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 88.03%EV -8.99%E -8.90%K -899.04%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.23%EV -7.77%E -0.370%K -0.388%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.73%EV -36.75%E -3.20%K -3.50%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-05 23:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 88.03%EV -8.99%E -8.90%K -899.04%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.23%EV -7.77%E -0.370%K -0.388%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.73%EV -36.75%E -3.20%K -3.50%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 88.03%EV -8.99%E -8.90%K -899.04%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.23%EV -7.77%E -0.370%K -0.388%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.73%EV -36.75%E -3.20%K -3.50%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-05 23:05
Grosvenor🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 88.03%EV -8.99%E -8.90%K -899.04%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.23%EV -7.77%E -0.370%K -0.388%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.73%EV -36.75%E -3.20%K -3.50%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-05 23:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 88.03%EV -8.99%E -8.90%K -899.04%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.23%EV -7.77%E -0.370%K -0.388%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.73%EV -36.75%E -3.20%K -3.50%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 88.03%EV -8.99%E -8.90%K -899.04%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.23%EV -7.77%E -0.370%K -0.388%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.73%EV -36.75%E -3.20%K -3.50%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-05 23:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 88.03%EV -8.99%E -8.90%K -899.04%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.23%EV -7.77%E -0.370%K -0.388%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.73%EV -36.75%E -3.20%K -3.50%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-05 23:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 88.03%EV -8.99%E -8.90%K -899.04%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.23%EV -7.77%E -0.370%K -0.388%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.73%EV -36.75%E -3.20%K -3.50%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-05 23:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 89.25%EV -8.99%E -8.90%K -899.04%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.74%EV -16.55%E -0.871%K -0.920%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.01%EV -17.51%E -1.17%K -1.25%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-06 07:55
betano_uk🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 79.05%EV -4.49%E -4.23%K -74.75%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 6.98%EV -47.30%E -3.94%K -4.30%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 13.97%EV -67.00%E -11.17%K -13.40%G +0.000%19.3%2026-09-06 13:55
Bet Victor🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 79.21%EV -5.39%E -5.13%K -107.72%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 6.93%EV -47.30%E -3.94%K -4.30%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 13.86%EV -67.00%E -11.17%K -13.40%G +0.000%20.2%2026-09-06 13:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.