Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bayern Munich v FSV Mainz 05

Kickoff: 2026-08-31 16:00 UTC

Final: Bayern Munich 2–0 FSV Mainz 05

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

89%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bayern Munich (Local)

Prediction 89.25%1.12fair odd

EV -8.97%

Edge -8.79%

Kelly -448.42%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

89.25%89.25%89.25%93.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.011.011.011.0299.01%98.77%99.01%98.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FSV Mainz 05 (Visit)

Prediction 4.74%21.08fair odd

EV +94.51%

Edge +2.31%

Kelly +2.36%

Growth +2.23%

assuming max odds 41.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

2.32%4.74%4.74%4.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

19.0029.5029.0041.005.26%3.39%3.45%2.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 6.01%16.64fair odd

EV +26.19%

Edge +1.25%

Kelly +1.31%

Growth +0.343%

assuming max odds 21.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

4.52%6.01%6.01%6.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

15.0018.5019.0021.006.67%5.41%5.26%4.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bayern Munich (Local): 89.25%; FSV Mainz 05 (Visit): 4.74%; Draw: 6.01%. For FSV Mainz 05 (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 21.08. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 41.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +94.51%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 93.16%EV -8.97%E -8.79%K -448.42%G +0.000%	41.00I 2.44%NM 2.32%EV +94.51%E +2.31%K +2.36%G +2.23%	21.00I 4.76%NM 4.52%EV +26.19%E +1.25%K +1.31%G +0.343%	5.2%	2026-08-31 15:59
Coral🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 91.91%EV -9.86%E -9.76%K -986.10%G +0.000%	29.00I 3.45%NM 3.20%EV +37.58%E +1.30%K +1.34%G +0.504%	19.00I 5.26%NM 4.89%EV +14.18%E +0.746%K +0.788%G +0.112%	7.7%	2026-08-31 12:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 91.91%EV -9.86%E -9.76%K -986.10%G +0.000%	29.00I 3.45%NM 3.20%EV +37.58%E +1.30%K +1.34%G +0.504%	19.00I 5.26%NM 4.89%EV +14.18%E +0.746%K +0.788%G +0.112%	7.7%	2026-08-31 12:35
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 89.25%EV -9.86%E -9.76%K -986.10%G +0.000%	19.00I 5.26%NM 4.74%EV -9.86%E -0.519%K -0.548%G +0.000%	15.00I 6.67%NM 6.01%EV -9.86%E -0.657%K -0.704%G +0.000%	10.9%	2026-08-31 14:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.