The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Bayern Munich v 1. FC Nürnberg

Kickoff: 2026-03-28 13:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bayern Munich (Local)

Prediction 90.93%1.10fair odd
EV -7.25%
Edge -7.11%
Kelly -362.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
89.27%90.93%90.93%92.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.021.021.0299.01%98.36%98.04%98.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Nürnberg (Visit)

Prediction 2.54%39.43fair odd
EV +153.59%
Edge +1.54%
Kelly +1.55%
Growth +2.38%

assuming max odds 100.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
0.95%2.54%2.54%3.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
28.0059.6751.00100.003.57%1.68%1.96%1.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 6.53%15.30fair odd
EV +11.09%
Edge +0.652%
Kelly +0.693%
Growth +0.077%

assuming max odds 17.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.56%6.53%6.53%7.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
12.0014.6715.0017.008.33%6.82%6.67%5.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bayern Munich (Local): 90.93%; 1. FC Nürnberg (Visit): 2.54%; Draw: 6.53%. For 1. FC Nürnberg (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 39.43. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 100.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +153.59%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.75%EV -7.25%E -7.11%K -362.59%G +0.000%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.95%EV +153.59%E +1.54%K +1.55%G +2.38%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -1.98%E -0.132%K -0.142%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-27 16:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.59%EV -7.25%E -7.11%K -362.59%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.85%EV +29.33%E +0.575%K +0.587%G +0.172%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.56%EV +11.09%E +0.652%K +0.693%G +0.077%5.9%2026-03-27 14:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 89.27%EV -8.16%E -8.08%K -816.10%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.22%EV -28.99%E -1.04%K -1.07%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.51%EV -21.59%E -1.80%K -1.96%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-28 01:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.00I 100.00%NM 85.94%23.98I 4.17%NM 3.58%8.20I 12.20%NM 10.48%16.4%2026-03-28 01:05