The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Bayern Munich v 1. FC Köln

Kickoff: 2026-09-19 12:00 UTC

Final: Bayern Munich 5–2 1. FC Köln

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bayern Munich (Local)

Prediction 78.98%1.27fair odd
EV -8.39%
Edge -7.23%
Kelly -52.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.59%78.83%78.98%79.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.141.141.1689.29%87.72%87.72%86.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Köln (Visit)

Prediction 8.16%12.25fair odd
EV +3.65%
Edge +0.287%
Kelly +0.312%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 12.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.05%8.18%8.16%9.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.5010.5911.0012.7011.76%9.44%9.09%7.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 12.86%7.77fair odd
EV -6.75%
Edge -0.930%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.55%12.99%12.86%16.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.006.406.857.2520.00%15.63%14.60%13.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bayern Munich (Local): 78.98%; 1. FC Köln (Visit): 8.16%; Draw: 12.86%. For 1. FC Köln (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.25. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.65%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.89%EV -11.55%E -10.31%K -96.22%G +0.000%12.70I 7.87%NM 7.05%EV +3.65%E +0.287%K +0.312%G +0.011%6.85I 14.60%NM 13.06%EV -11.89%E -1.74%K -2.03%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-18 15:09
Unibet (UK)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.22%EV -8.39%E -7.23%K -52.42%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.66%EV -2.06%E -0.172%K -0.188%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -9.96%E -1.42%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-18 12:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.24%EV -9.97%E -8.74%K -71.19%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.21%EV -10.23%E -0.930%K -1.02%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.55%EV -7.39%E -1.03%K -1.19%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-18 12:20
BoyleSports🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 78.18%EV -9.97%E -8.74%K -71.19%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.10%EV -10.23%E -0.930%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.71%EV -16.39%E -2.52%K -2.98%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-18 12:20
Pinnacle🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.66%EV -8.39%E -7.23%K -52.42%G +0.000%10.43I 9.59%NM 8.75%EV -14.88%E -1.43%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.59%EV -6.75%E -0.930%K -1.08%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-18 14:55
betano_uk🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 73.59%EV -10.76%E -9.52%K -82.75%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 9.78%EV -30.63%E -3.60%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 16.63%EV -35.69%E -7.14%K -8.92%G +0.000%20.3%2026-09-18 15:04
Bet Victor🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 73.59%EV -10.76%E -9.52%K -82.75%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 9.78%EV -30.63%E -3.60%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 16.63%EV -35.69%E -7.14%K -8.92%G +0.000%20.3%2026-09-18 15:03
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.