The School of Odds
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Bayer Leverkusen v Werder Bremen

Kickoff: 2026-10-02 16:32 UTC

Final: Bayer Leverkusen 3–2 Werder Bremen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bayer Leverkusen (Local)

Prediction 61.05%1.64fair odd
EV -4.15%
Edge -2.65%
Kelly -7.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.02%60.53%60.75%63.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.491.501.5769.44%67.16%66.67%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Werder Bremen (Visit)

Prediction 17.95%5.57fair odd
EV -0.044%
Edge -0.008%
Kelly -0.010%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.67%18.52%18.09%21.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.814.805.5725.00%20.80%20.83%17.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.01%4.76fair odd
EV +2.09%
Edge +0.430%
Kelly +0.541%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 4.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.62%20.95%21.16%23.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.094.004.8627.78%24.44%25.00%20.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bayer Leverkusen (Local): 61.05%; Werder Bremen (Visit): 17.95%; Draw: 21.01%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.76. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.86, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.09%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.51%EV -5.37%E -3.47%K -9.77%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.88%EV -9.38%E -1.86%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.86I 20.58%NM 19.62%EV +2.09%E +0.430%K +0.541%G +0.011%4.9%2026-10-02 16:19
Pinnacle🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.18%EV -10.26%E -6.98%K -21.83%G +0.000%5.57I 17.95%NM 16.67%EV -0.044%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%4.61I 21.69%NM 20.15%EV -3.16%E -0.686%K -0.876%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-02 16:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.30%EV -11.48%E -7.92%K -25.51%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.07%EV -10.27%E -2.05%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.64%EV -3.37%E -0.733%K -0.937%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-02 16:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.48%EV -7.21%E -4.74%K -13.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.39%EV -10.27%E -2.05%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.13%EV -8.62%E -1.98%K -2.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-02 16:25
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.93%EV -6.60%E -4.31%K -12.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.60%EV -17.45%E -3.79%K -4.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.47%EV -11.78%E -2.80%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-02 16:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.93%EV -6.60%E -4.31%K -12.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.60%EV -17.45%E -3.79%K -4.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.47%EV -11.78%E -2.80%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-02 16:15
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.43%E -5.62%K -16.85%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -13.86%E -2.89%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -15.98%E -3.99%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-02 16:15
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.43%E -5.62%K -16.85%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -13.86%E -2.89%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -15.98%E -3.99%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-02 16:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.43%E -5.62%K -16.85%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -13.86%E -2.89%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -15.98%E -3.99%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-02 16:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.43%E -5.62%K -16.85%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -13.86%E -2.89%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -15.98%E -3.99%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-02 16:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.43%E -5.62%K -16.85%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -13.86%E -2.89%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -15.98%E -3.99%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-02 16:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.43%E -5.62%K -16.85%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -13.86%E -2.89%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -15.98%E -3.99%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-02 16:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.43%E -5.62%K -16.85%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -13.86%E -2.89%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -15.98%E -3.99%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-02 16:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.43%E -5.62%K -16.85%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -13.86%E -2.89%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -15.98%E -3.99%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-02 16:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.43%E -5.62%K -16.85%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -13.86%E -2.89%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -15.98%E -3.99%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-02 16:15
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.02%EV -4.15%E -2.65%K -7.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.99%EV -28.22%E -7.05%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.99%EV -15.98%E -3.99%K -5.33%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-02 16:25
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -12.09%E -8.40%K -27.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -10.27%E -2.05%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -15.98%E -3.99%K -5.33%G +0.000%14.4%2026-10-02 16:25
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -12.09%E -8.40%K -27.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -10.27%E -2.05%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -15.98%E -3.99%K -5.33%G +0.000%14.4%2026-10-02 16:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -12.09%E -8.40%K -27.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -10.27%E -2.05%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -15.98%E -3.99%K -5.33%G +0.000%14.4%2026-10-02 16:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -12.09%E -8.40%K -27.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -10.27%E -2.05%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -15.98%E -3.99%K -5.33%G +0.000%14.4%2026-10-02 16:25
Bet Victor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 57.89%EV -12.09%E -8.40%K -27.48%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 18.95%EV -21.04%E -4.78%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.16%EV -24.38%E -6.77%K -9.38%G +0.000%19.9%2026-10-02 16:24
betano_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 57.72%EV -12.09%E -8.40%K -27.48%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.19%EV -22.30%E -5.15%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.09%EV -24.38%E -6.77%K -9.38%G +0.000%20.3%2026-10-02 16:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.53I 65.36%NM 63.01%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.91%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.08%3.7%2026-10-02 16:25