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Bayer Leverkusen v Werder Bremen
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Bayer Leverkusen (Local)
Prediction 62.12%1.61fair odd
EV -3.72%
Edge -2.40%
Kelly -6.77%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.32%61.78%62.12%63.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.511.501.5571.43%66.31%66.45%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Werder Bremen (Visit)
Prediction 16.95%5.90fair odd
EV -6.79%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -1.51%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.41%17.03%16.95%20.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.784.675.5022.73%20.92%21.39%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 20.94%4.78fair odd
EV -5.78%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -1.65%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.05%21.19%20.94%22.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.043.954.5026.67%24.77%25.32%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bayer Leverkusen (Local): 62.12%; Werder Bremen (Visit): 16.95%; Draw: 20.94%. For Bayer Leverkusen (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.61. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.55, with an expected value of -3.72%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.32%EV -3.72%E -2.40%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.19%EV -25.43%E -5.78%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.49%EV -17.30%E -4.38%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-14 13:26 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.32%EV -3.72%E -2.40%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.19%EV -25.43%E -5.78%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.49%EV -17.30%E -4.38%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-14 13:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.32%EV -3.72%E -2.40%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.19%EV -25.43%E -5.78%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.49%EV -17.30%E -4.38%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-14 13:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.32%EV -3.72%E -2.40%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.19%EV -25.43%E -5.78%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.49%EV -17.30%E -4.38%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-14 13:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.32%EV -3.72%E -2.40%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.19%EV -25.43%E -5.78%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.49%EV -17.30%E -4.38%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-14 13:26 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.32%EV -3.72%E -2.40%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.19%EV -25.43%E -5.78%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.49%EV -17.30%E -4.38%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-14 13:26 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.32%EV -3.72%E -2.40%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.19%EV -25.43%E -5.78%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.49%EV -17.30%E -4.38%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-14 13:26 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.32%EV -3.72%E -2.40%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.19%EV -25.43%E -5.78%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.49%EV -17.30%E -4.38%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-14 13:26 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.32%EV -3.72%E -2.40%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.19%EV -25.43%E -5.78%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.49%EV -17.30%E -4.38%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-14 13:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.32%EV -3.72%E -2.40%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.19%EV -25.43%E -5.78%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.49%EV -17.30%E -4.38%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-14 13:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.46%EV -6.21%E -4.11%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 17.35%EV -9.33%E -1.74%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 4.38I 22.83%NM 21.19%EV -8.30%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -6.83%E -4.55%K -13.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -15.26%E -3.05%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -12.06%E -2.87%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -6.83%E -4.55%K -13.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -15.26%E -3.05%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -12.06%E -2.87%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.36%EV -6.83%E -4.55%K -13.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -15.26%E -3.05%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.83%EV -18.35%E -4.70%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.36%EV -6.83%E -4.55%K -13.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -15.26%E -3.05%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.83%EV -18.35%E -4.70%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.36%EV -6.83%E -4.55%K -13.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -15.26%E -3.05%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.83%EV -18.35%E -4.70%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.36%EV -6.83%E -4.55%K -13.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -15.26%E -3.05%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.83%EV -18.35%E -4.70%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-17 10:39 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 62.19%EV -9.31%E -6.38%K -20.24%G +0.000% | 5.44I 18.38%NM 16.69%EV -7.80%E -1.43%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.12%EV -9.97%E -2.32%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.77%EV -9.93%E -6.85%K -22.07%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -6.79%E -1.23%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.68%EV -7.88%E -1.79%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.13%EV -10.55%E -7.33%K -23.99%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.23%EV -19.50%E -4.10%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.65%EV -16.25%E -4.06%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 15.5% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 63.54%EV -11.80%E -8.31%K -28.09%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.41%EV -6.79%E -1.23%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.05%EV -5.78%E -1.29%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 59.61%EV -13.04%E -9.31%K -32.60%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 18.14%EV -22.04%E -4.79%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 22.25%EV -21.49%E -5.73%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 19.8% | 2026-05-17 10:39 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.