The School of Odds
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Bayer Leverkusen v TSG Hoffenheim

Kickoff: 2026-02-22 13:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bayer Leverkusen (Local)

Prediction 42.10%2.38fair odd
EV -1.07%
Edge -0.456%
Kelly -0.793%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.73%42.10%41.89%43.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.252.282.3548.78%44.44%43.96%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TSG Hoffenheim (Visit)

Prediction 32.51%3.08fair odd
EV -8.97%
Edge -3.21%
Kelly -4.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.36%32.51%32.51%36.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.562.502.8041.67%39.10%40.00%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.39%3.94fair odd
EV -6.04%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -2.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.49%25.39%25.60%26.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.493.503.7029.41%28.66%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bayer Leverkusen (Local): 42.10%; TSG Hoffenheim (Visit): 32.51%; Draw: 25.39%. For Bayer Leverkusen (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.38. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.35, with an expected value of -1.07%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.73%EV -1.07%E -0.456%K -0.793%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -21.98%E -9.16%K -15.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.33%EV -11.12%E -3.18%K -4.45%G +0.000%12.8%2026-02-21 10:59
Unibet (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.73%EV -1.07%E -0.456%K -0.793%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -21.98%E -9.16%K -15.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.33%EV -11.12%E -3.18%K -4.45%G +0.000%12.8%2026-02-21 10:59
Unibet (NL)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.73%EV -1.07%E -0.456%K -0.793%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -21.98%E -9.16%K -15.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.33%EV -11.12%E -3.18%K -4.45%G +0.000%12.8%2026-02-21 11:00
Grosvenor🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.73%EV -1.07%E -0.456%K -0.793%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -21.98%E -9.16%K -15.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.33%EV -11.12%E -3.18%K -4.45%G +0.000%12.8%2026-02-21 10:59
LeoVegas🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.73%EV -1.07%E -0.456%K -0.793%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -21.98%E -9.16%K -15.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.33%EV -11.12%E -3.18%K -4.45%G +0.000%12.8%2026-02-21 11:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.73%EV -1.07%E -0.456%K -0.793%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -21.98%E -9.16%K -15.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.33%EV -11.12%E -3.18%K -4.45%G +0.000%12.8%2026-02-21 11:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.73%EV -1.07%E -0.456%K -0.793%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -21.98%E -9.16%K -15.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.33%EV -11.12%E -3.18%K -4.45%G +0.000%12.8%2026-02-21 11:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.73%EV -1.07%E -0.456%K -0.793%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -21.98%E -9.16%K -15.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.33%EV -11.12%E -3.18%K -4.45%G +0.000%12.8%2026-02-21 11:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.73%EV -1.07%E -0.456%K -0.793%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -21.98%E -9.16%K -15.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.33%EV -11.12%E -3.18%K -4.45%G +0.000%12.8%2026-02-21 10:59
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -8.97%E -3.21%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -8.58%E -2.38%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-22 11:59
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.02%EV -14.83%E -5.66%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -11.12%E -3.18%K -4.45%G +0.000%12.2%2026-02-22 12:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -7.39%E -3.36%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.02%EV -14.83%E -5.66%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -11.12%E -3.18%K -4.45%G +0.000%12.2%2026-02-22 12:00
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -9.49%E -4.41%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -10.60%E -3.85%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -13.66%E -4.02%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-22 12:00
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -9.49%E -4.41%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -10.60%E -3.85%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -13.66%E -4.02%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-22 12:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -9.49%E -4.41%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -10.60%E -3.85%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -13.66%E -4.02%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-22 12:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -9.49%E -4.41%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -10.60%E -3.85%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -13.66%E -4.02%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-22 12:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -11.60%E -5.52%K -10.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.36%EV -8.97%E -3.21%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -6.04%E -1.63%K -2.24%G +0.000%10.4%2026-02-22 12:00
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.82%EV -13.70%E -6.68%K -13.05%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.97%EV -15.48%E -5.95%K -9.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.21%EV -13.66%E -4.02%K -5.69%G +0.000%16.7%2026-02-22 12:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.