The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Bayer Leverkusen v Eintracht Frankfurt

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 12:01 UTC

Final: Bayer Leverkusen 1–1 Eintracht Frankfurt

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bayer Leverkusen (Local)

Prediction 35.26%2.84fair odd
EV +4.03%
Edge +1.37%
Kelly +2.07%
Growth +0.083%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.74%35.26%35.55%35.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.782.802.9540.00%36.02%35.71%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Eintracht Frankfurt (Visit)

Prediction 40.49%2.47fair odd
EV -6.87%
Edge -2.99%
Kelly -5.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.33%40.49%40.54%45.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.061.972.3054.05%48.53%50.76%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.24%4.12fair odd
EV -5.45%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -1.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.65%24.24%23.91%26.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.523.503.9030.30%28.39%28.57%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bayer Leverkusen (Local): 35.26%; Eintracht Frankfurt (Visit): 40.49%; Draw: 24.24%. For Bayer Leverkusen (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.84. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.03%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.94%EV +4.03%E +1.37%K +2.07%G +0.083%1.97I 50.76%NM 44.83%EV -20.23%E -10.27%K -20.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -15.15%E -4.33%K -6.06%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-16 19:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.94%EV +4.03%E +1.37%K +2.07%G +0.083%1.97I 50.76%NM 44.83%EV -20.23%E -10.27%K -20.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -15.15%E -4.33%K -6.06%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-16 19:09
LiveScore Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.94%EV +4.03%E +1.37%K +2.07%G +0.083%1.97I 50.76%NM 44.83%EV -20.23%E -10.27%K -20.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -15.15%E -4.33%K -6.06%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-16 19:10
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.87%EV +4.03%E +1.37%K +2.07%G +0.083%1.96I 51.02%NM 44.96%EV -20.63%E -10.53%K -21.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.18%EV -15.15%E -4.33%K -6.06%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-16 19:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.87%EV +4.03%E +1.37%K +2.07%G +0.083%1.96I 51.02%NM 44.96%EV -20.63%E -10.53%K -21.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.18%EV -15.15%E -4.33%K -6.06%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-16 19:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.87%EV +4.03%E +1.37%K +2.07%G +0.083%1.96I 51.02%NM 44.96%EV -20.63%E -10.53%K -21.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.18%EV -15.15%E -4.33%K -6.06%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-16 19:09
Unibet (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.87%EV +4.03%E +1.37%K +2.07%G +0.083%1.96I 51.02%NM 44.96%EV -20.63%E -10.53%K -21.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.18%EV -15.15%E -4.33%K -6.06%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-16 19:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.87%EV +4.03%E +1.37%K +2.07%G +0.083%1.96I 51.02%NM 44.96%EV -20.63%E -10.53%K -21.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.18%EV -15.15%E -4.33%K -6.06%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-16 19:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.87%EV +4.03%E +1.37%K +2.07%G +0.083%1.96I 51.02%NM 44.96%EV -20.63%E -10.53%K -21.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.18%EV -15.15%E -4.33%K -6.06%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-16 19:09
1xBet🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 31.79%EV +3.68%E +1.25%K +1.90%G +0.070%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.48%EV -12.94%E -6.02%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.73%EV -8.36%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 11:59
betano_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 29.74%EV -1.26%E -0.450%K -0.700%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 45.02%EV -25.09%E -13.56%K -29.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.24%EV -20.00%E -6.06%K -8.70%G +0.000%20.1%2026-10-17 11:59
Bet Victor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 29.74%EV -1.26%E -0.450%K -0.700%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 45.02%EV -25.09%E -13.56%K -29.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.24%EV -20.00%E -6.06%K -8.70%G +0.000%20.1%2026-10-17 11:58
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 31.22%EV -4.79%E -1.77%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 43.23%EV -21.04%E -10.79%K -22.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.55%EV -20.00%E -6.06%K -8.70%G +0.000%18.6%2026-10-17 11:44
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.77%EV -7.61%E -2.90%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.21%EV -10.92%E -4.96%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.02%EV -17.57%E -5.17%K -7.32%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-17 12:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.56%EV -8.31%E -3.20%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.79%EV -12.94%E -6.02%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -7.88%E -2.07%K -2.81%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-17 11:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.43%EV -8.31%E -3.20%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -10.92%E -4.96%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.87%EV -12.73%E -3.53%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-17 11:35
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.43%EV -8.31%E -3.20%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -10.92%E -4.96%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.87%EV -12.73%E -3.53%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-17 11:35
Pinnacle🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 35.84%EV -8.67%E -3.35%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.36%EV -6.87%E -2.99%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -5.45%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-17 11:40
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.39%EV -11.84%E -4.74%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.33%EV -8.89%E -3.95%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.28%EV -15.15%E -4.33%K -6.06%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-17 11:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.39%EV -11.84%E -4.74%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.33%EV -8.89%E -3.95%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.28%EV -15.15%E -4.33%K -6.06%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-17 11:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.39%EV -11.84%E -4.74%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.33%EV -8.89%E -3.95%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.28%EV -15.15%E -4.33%K -6.06%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-17 11:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.68I 37.31%NM 33.46%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.30%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%11.5%2026-10-17 12:00