The School of Odds
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Bayer Leverkusen v Carl Zeiss Jena

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 17:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bayer Leverkusen (Local)

Prediction 78.12%1.28fair odd
EV -5.47%
Edge -4.52%
Kelly -26.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.01%78.42%78.12%81.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.151.121.2190.09%87.25%89.29%82.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Carl Zeiss Jena (Visit)

Prediction 7.70%13.00fair odd
EV +7.73%
Edge +0.552%
Kelly +0.595%
Growth +0.046%

assuming max odds 14.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.37%7.69%7.70%9.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.5012.6914.0014.0010.53%7.88%7.14%7.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 14.18%7.05fair odd
EV +6.35%
Edge +0.847%
Kelly +0.977%
Growth +0.062%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.06%13.89%14.18%17.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.806.306.407.5020.83%15.88%15.63%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bayer Leverkusen (Local): 78.12%; Carl Zeiss Jena (Visit): 7.70%; Draw: 14.18%. For Carl Zeiss Jena (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.00. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 14.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.73%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.48%EV -13.28%E -11.97%K -120.75%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.46%EV +7.73%E +0.552%K +0.595%G +0.046%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV +6.35%E +0.847%K +0.977%G +0.062%10.6%2026-03-22 16:44
Pinnacle🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.78%EV -7.81%E -6.62%K -43.41%G +0.000%11.96I 8.36%NM 7.77%EV -7.97%E -0.666%K -0.727%G +0.000%6.91I 14.47%NM 13.45%EV -2.01%E -0.291%K -0.341%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-22 17:10
Coral🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.95%EV -7.81%E -6.62%K -43.41%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -23.05%E -2.30%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.97%EV -7.83%E -1.20%K -1.42%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-22 17:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.95%EV -7.81%E -6.62%K -43.41%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -23.05%E -2.30%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.97%EV -7.83%E -1.20%K -1.42%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-22 17:09
Unibet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.68%EV -12.50%E -11.16%K -104.17%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.37%EV +7.73%E +0.552%K +0.595%G +0.046%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.94%EV -9.24%E -1.44%K -1.71%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-22 16:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.68%EV -12.50%E -11.16%K -104.17%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.37%EV +7.73%E +0.552%K +0.595%G +0.046%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.94%EV -9.24%E -1.44%K -1.71%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-22 16:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.68%EV -12.50%E -11.16%K -104.17%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.37%EV +7.73%E +0.552%K +0.595%G +0.046%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.94%EV -9.24%E -1.44%K -1.71%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-22 16:39
LeoVegas🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.68%EV -12.50%E -11.16%K -104.17%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.37%EV +7.73%E +0.552%K +0.595%G +0.046%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.94%EV -9.24%E -1.44%K -1.71%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-22 16:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.68%EV -12.50%E -11.16%K -104.17%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.37%EV +7.73%E +0.552%K +0.595%G +0.046%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.94%EV -9.24%E -1.44%K -1.71%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-22 16:39
Unibet (NL)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.68%EV -12.50%E -11.16%K -104.17%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.37%EV +7.73%E +0.552%K +0.595%G +0.046%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.94%EV -9.24%E -1.44%K -1.71%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-22 16:40
Grosvenor🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.68%EV -12.50%E -11.16%K -104.17%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.37%EV +7.73%E +0.552%K +0.595%G +0.046%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.94%EV -9.24%E -1.44%K -1.71%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-22 16:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.68%EV -12.50%E -11.16%K -104.17%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.37%EV +7.73%E +0.552%K +0.595%G +0.046%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.94%EV -9.24%E -1.44%K -1.71%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-22 16:39
Svenska Spel🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.68%EV -12.50%E -11.16%K -104.17%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.37%EV +7.73%E +0.552%K +0.595%G +0.046%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.94%EV -9.24%E -1.44%K -1.71%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-22 16:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.68%EV -12.50%E -11.16%K -104.17%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.37%EV +7.73%E +0.552%K +0.595%G +0.046%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.94%EV -9.24%E -1.44%K -1.71%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-22 16:39
1xBet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.36%EV -5.47%E -4.52%K -26.05%G +0.000%13.10I 7.63%NM 7.15%EV +0.807%E +0.062%K +0.067%G +0.001%6.04I 16.56%NM 15.50%EV -14.35%E -2.38%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-22 17:24
888sport🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.22%EV -7.81%E -6.62%K -43.41%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV -7.66%E -0.638%K -0.696%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -14.92%E -2.49%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-22 17:05
William Hill🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.22%EV -7.81%E -6.62%K -43.41%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV -7.66%E -0.638%K -0.696%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -14.92%E -2.49%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-22 17:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.22%EV -7.81%E -6.62%K -43.41%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV -7.66%E -0.638%K -0.696%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -14.92%E -2.49%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-22 17:09
888sport (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.22%EV -7.81%E -6.62%K -43.41%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV -7.66%E -0.638%K -0.696%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -14.92%E -2.49%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-22 17:05
BoyleSports🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.22%EV -8.59%E -7.35%K -50.56%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.92%EV -23.05%E -2.30%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.86%EV -14.92%E -2.49%K -2.98%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-22 17:09
Bet Victor🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 74.01%EV -12.50%E -11.16%K -104.17%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 8.73%EV -26.90%E -2.83%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 17.27%EV -31.93%E -6.65%K -8.40%G +0.000%20.6%2026-03-22 17:13
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.