The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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1. FC Nürnberg v TSG Hoffenheim

Kickoff: 2026-10-04 16:30 UTC

Final: 1. FC Nürnberg 1–2 TSG Hoffenheim

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Nürnberg (Local)

Prediction 30.22%3.31fair odd
EV -6.33%
Edge -2.04%
Kelly -3.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.57%30.22%30.67%32.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.603.013.103.1038.46%33.26%32.26%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TSG Hoffenheim (Visit)

Prediction 45.02%2.22fair odd
EV -5.91%
Edge -2.83%
Kelly -5.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.29%45.02%44.92%46.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.911.971.922.0952.36%50.78%52.08%47.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.77%4.04fair odd
EV +9.21%
Edge +2.09%
Kelly +2.70%
Growth +0.249%

assuming max odds 4.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.62%24.77%24.41%26.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.583.504.4129.41%27.93%28.57%22.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: 1. FC Nürnberg (Local): 30.22%; TSG Hoffenheim (Visit): 45.02%; Draw: 24.77%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.04. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.41, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.21%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 32.76%EV -12.07%E -4.15%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.62%EV -5.91%E -2.83%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.41I 22.68%NM 21.62%EV +9.21%E +2.09%K +2.70%G +0.249%4.9%2026-10-04 16:13
Pinnacle🎯3.01I 33.22%NM 30.82%EV -9.05%E -3.01%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.82%EV -6.81%E -3.29%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 24.35%EV -5.65%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-04 16:20
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.22%EV -6.33%E -2.04%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.94%EV -13.12%E -6.80%K -14.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -5.89%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-04 16:10
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 32.74%EV -21.44%E -8.24%K -13.40%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 44.56%EV -14.02%E -7.34%K -15.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.70%EV -7.13%E -1.90%K -2.59%G +0.000%17.5%2026-10-04 16:25
Grosvenor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.57%EV -6.33%E -2.04%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.13%EV -13.57%E -7.07%K -14.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -13.32%E -3.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-04 16:06
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.57%EV -6.33%E -2.04%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.13%EV -13.57%E -7.07%K -14.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -13.32%E -3.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-04 16:06
Virgin Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.57%EV -6.33%E -2.04%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.13%EV -13.57%E -7.07%K -14.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -13.32%E -3.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-04 16:06
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.57%EV -6.33%E -2.04%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.13%EV -13.57%E -7.07%K -14.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -13.32%E -3.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-04 16:06
LiveScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.57%EV -6.33%E -2.04%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.13%EV -13.57%E -7.07%K -14.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -13.32%E -3.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-04 16:05
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.57%EV -6.33%E -2.04%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.13%EV -13.57%E -7.07%K -14.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -13.32%E -3.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-04 16:06
Unibet (NL)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.57%EV -6.33%E -2.04%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.13%EV -13.57%E -7.07%K -14.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -13.32%E -3.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-04 16:05
Svenska Spel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.57%EV -6.33%E -2.04%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.13%EV -13.57%E -7.07%K -14.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -13.32%E -3.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-04 16:05
ATG (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.57%EV -6.33%E -2.04%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.13%EV -13.57%E -7.07%K -14.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -13.32%E -3.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-04 16:06
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -12.37%E -4.27%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -7.71%E -3.76%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -15.80%E -4.65%K -6.58%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-04 16:10
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -12.37%E -4.27%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -7.71%E -3.76%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -15.80%E -4.65%K -6.58%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-04 16:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -12.37%E -4.27%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -7.71%E -3.76%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -15.80%E -4.65%K -6.58%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-04 16:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -12.37%E -4.27%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -7.71%E -3.76%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -15.80%E -4.65%K -6.58%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-04 16:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.27%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.38%6.3%2026-10-04 16:25