The School of Odds
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1. FC Nürnberg v Hamburger SV

Kickoff: 2026-04-24 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Nürnberg (Local)

Prediction 37.29%2.68fair odd
EV -1.93%
Edge -0.733%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.73%37.29%37.29%38.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.592.632.6342.55%38.64%38.02%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hamburger SV (Visit)

Prediction 35.44%2.82fair odd
EV -7.86%
Edge -3.02%
Kelly -4.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.83%35.44%35.44%39.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.232.302.232.6044.84%43.51%44.84%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.27%3.67fair odd
EV -7.27%
Edge -2.14%
Kelly -3.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.45%27.27%27.27%27.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.283.353.353.4030.49%29.83%29.85%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: 1. FC Nürnberg (Local): 37.29%; Hamburger SV (Visit): 35.44%; Draw: 27.27%. For 1. FC Nürnberg (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.68. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.63, with an expected value of -1.93%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.73%EV -1.93%E -0.733%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 39.78%EV -20.98%E -9.41%K -17.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.48%EV -8.63%E -2.58%K -3.67%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-23 12:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.73%EV -1.93%E -0.733%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 39.78%EV -20.98%E -9.41%K -17.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.48%EV -8.63%E -2.58%K -3.67%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-23 12:49
Unibet (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.73%EV -1.93%E -0.733%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 39.78%EV -20.98%E -9.41%K -17.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.48%EV -8.63%E -2.58%K -3.67%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-23 12:50
Grosvenor🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.73%EV -1.93%E -0.733%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 39.78%EV -20.98%E -9.41%K -17.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.48%EV -8.63%E -2.58%K -3.67%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-23 12:49
Unibet (NL)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.73%EV -1.93%E -0.733%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 39.78%EV -20.98%E -9.41%K -17.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.48%EV -8.63%E -2.58%K -3.67%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-23 12:49
LeoVegas🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.73%EV -1.93%E -0.733%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 39.78%EV -20.98%E -9.41%K -17.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.48%EV -8.63%E -2.58%K -3.67%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-23 12:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.73%EV -1.93%E -0.733%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 39.78%EV -20.98%E -9.41%K -17.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.48%EV -8.63%E -2.58%K -3.67%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-23 12:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.73%EV -1.93%E -0.733%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 39.78%EV -20.98%E -9.41%K -17.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.48%EV -8.63%E -2.58%K -3.67%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-23 12:49
ATG (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.73%EV -1.93%E -0.733%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 39.78%EV -20.98%E -9.41%K -17.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.48%EV -8.63%E -2.58%K -3.67%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-23 12:49
LiveScore Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.73%EV -1.93%E -0.733%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 39.78%EV -20.98%E -9.41%K -17.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.48%EV -8.63%E -2.58%K -3.67%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-23 12:49
Pinnacle🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 36.04%EV -5.28%E -2.08%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 36.04%EV -9.99%E -3.93%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 27.91%EV -10.54%E -3.21%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-23 23:09
1xBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.70%EV -8.64%E -3.53%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 36.85%EV -13.53%E -5.55%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -7.27%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-23 23:19
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.54%EV -12.37%E -5.26%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -7.86%E -3.02%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -7.27%E -2.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-23 23:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.30I 43.48%NM 36.87%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.33%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.80%17.9%2026-04-23 23:09