The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

1. FC Nürnberg v Bayer Leverkusen

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 15:00 UTC

Final: 1. FC Nürnberg 2–0 Bayer Leverkusen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Nürnberg (Local)

Prediction 14.88%6.72fair odd
EV +0.432%
Edge +0.064%
Kelly +0.075%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.13%14.88%15.27%17.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.006.316.756.7520.00%15.84%14.81%14.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bayer Leverkusen (Visit)

Prediction 66.44%1.51fair odd
EV -7.65%
Edge -5.50%
Kelly -19.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.52%66.44%66.25%68.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.331.301.3976.92%75.29%76.92%71.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.68%5.35fair odd
EV -2.68%
Edge -0.515%
Kelly -0.637%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.79%18.68%18.48%19.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.704.755.2122.22%21.27%21.05%19.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: 1. FC Nürnberg (Local): 14.88%; Bayer Leverkusen (Visit): 66.44%; Draw: 18.68%. For 1. FC Nürnberg (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.72. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.432%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LiveScore Bet🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.13%EV +0.432%E +0.064%K +0.075%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.20%EV -13.63%E -10.48%K -45.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.67%EV -11.27%E -2.37%K -3.01%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-24 19:29
Unibet (SE)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.13%EV +0.432%E +0.064%K +0.075%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.20%EV -13.63%E -10.48%K -45.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.67%EV -11.27%E -2.37%K -3.01%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-24 19:30
Unibet (NL)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.13%EV +0.432%E +0.064%K +0.075%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.20%EV -13.63%E -10.48%K -45.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.67%EV -11.27%E -2.37%K -3.01%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-24 19:29
Grosvenor🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.13%EV +0.432%E +0.064%K +0.075%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.20%EV -13.63%E -10.48%K -45.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.67%EV -11.27%E -2.37%K -3.01%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-24 19:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.13%EV +0.432%E +0.064%K +0.075%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.20%EV -13.63%E -10.48%K -45.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.67%EV -11.27%E -2.37%K -3.01%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-24 19:30
Unibet🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.13%EV +0.432%E +0.064%K +0.075%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.20%EV -13.63%E -10.48%K -45.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.67%EV -11.27%E -2.37%K -3.01%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-24 19:30
Virgin Bet🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.13%EV +0.432%E +0.064%K +0.075%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.20%EV -13.63%E -10.48%K -45.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.67%EV -11.27%E -2.37%K -3.01%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-24 19:29
Svenska Spel🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.13%EV +0.432%E +0.064%K +0.075%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.20%EV -13.63%E -10.48%K -45.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.67%EV -11.27%E -2.37%K -3.01%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-24 19:30
ATG (SE)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.13%EV +0.432%E +0.064%K +0.075%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.20%EV -13.63%E -10.48%K -45.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.67%EV -11.27%E -2.37%K -3.01%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-24 19:30
Tipico (DE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.74%EV -3.29%E -0.506%K -0.598%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 67.66%EV -12.30%E -9.32%K -38.43%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.61%EV -10.34%E -2.15%K -2.72%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-25 14:05
1xBet🎯6.08I 16.45%NM 14.82%EV -9.54%E -1.57%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 65.79%EV -8.97%E -6.55%K -24.25%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.38%EV -13.14%E -2.83%K -3.60%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-25 14:34
Pinnacle🎯5.97I 16.75%NM 15.53%EV -11.17%E -1.87%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 66.68%EV -7.65%E -5.50%K -19.60%G +0.000%5.21I 19.19%NM 17.79%EV -2.68%E -0.515%K -0.637%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-25 14:35
William Hill🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.26%EV -13.70%E -2.36%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.07%EV -9.64%E -7.09%K -26.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.67%EV -15.94%E -3.54%K -4.56%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-25 14:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.37%EV -14.45%E -2.51%K -3.04%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 64.99%EV -9.64%E -7.09%K -26.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.64%EV -15.94%E -3.54%K -4.56%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-25 14:35
888sport🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.37%EV -14.45%E -2.51%K -3.04%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 64.99%EV -9.64%E -7.09%K -26.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.64%EV -15.94%E -3.54%K -4.56%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-25 14:35
888sport (SE)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.37%EV -14.45%E -2.51%K -3.04%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 64.99%EV -9.64%E -7.09%K -26.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.64%EV -15.94%E -3.54%K -4.56%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-25 14:35
BoyleSports🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.28%EV -25.61%E -5.12%K -6.40%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 63.52%EV -9.64%E -7.09%K -26.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.20%EV -15.94%E -3.54%K -4.56%G +0.000%15.8%2026-10-25 14:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎5.40I 18.52%NM 16.62%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.05%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.32%11.4%2026-10-25 14:06