The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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1. FC Köln v TSG Hoffenheim

Kickoff: 2026-08-28 16:30 UTC

Final: 1. FC Köln 1–0 TSG Hoffenheim

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Köln (Local)

Prediction 35.34%2.83fair odd
EV -2.80%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -1.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.43%35.34%35.37%35.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.642.752.7542.02%37.85%36.36%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TSG Hoffenheim (Visit)

Prediction 38.79%2.58fair odd
EV -6.90%
Edge -2.87%
Kelly -4.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.10%38.79%38.53%40.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.242.202.4045.45%44.57%45.45%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.86%3.87fair odd
EV -3.53%
Edge -0.948%
Kelly -1.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.85%25.86%26.10%27.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.323.303.7333.33%30.13%30.30%26.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: 1. FC Köln (Local): 35.34%; TSG Hoffenheim (Visit): 38.79%; Draw: 25.86%. For 1. FC Köln (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.83. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.75, with an expected value of -2.80%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -2.80%E -1.02%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -14.65%E -6.66%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-28 15:45
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -2.80%E -1.02%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -14.65%E -6.66%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-28 15:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -2.80%E -1.02%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -14.65%E -6.66%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-28 15:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -2.80%E -1.02%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -14.65%E -6.66%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-28 15:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -2.80%E -1.02%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -14.65%E -6.66%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-28 15:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -2.80%E -1.02%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -14.65%E -6.66%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-28 15:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -2.80%E -1.02%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -14.65%E -6.66%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-28 15:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -2.80%E -1.02%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -14.65%E -6.66%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-28 15:45
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -2.80%E -1.02%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -14.65%E -6.66%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-28 15:45
Pinnacle🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.37%EV -7.40%E -2.82%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.78%EV -9.61%E -4.12%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 24.85%EV -3.53%E -0.948%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-28 16:01
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -8.10%E -3.12%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.54%EV -8.84%E -3.76%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -12.07%E -3.55%K -5.03%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-28 16:15
1xBet🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 34.69%EV -8.46%E -3.27%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.73%EV -10.00%E -4.31%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.58%EV -12.59%E -3.72%K -5.29%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-28 16:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.83%EV -9.87%E -3.87%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -6.90%E -2.87%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -9.48%E -2.71%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-28 01:01
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.76%EV -15.17%E -6.32%K -10.84%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.01%EV -14.65%E -6.66%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.24%EV -12.07%E -3.55%K -5.03%G +0.000%16.5%2026-08-28 16:01
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 35.07%EV -15.88%E -6.67%K -11.51%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 37.10%EV -12.71%E -5.65%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.83%EV -22.41%E -7.47%K -11.21%G +0.000%19.8%2026-08-28 14:38
betano_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 35.07%EV -15.88%E -6.67%K -11.51%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 37.10%EV -12.71%E -5.65%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.83%EV -22.41%E -7.47%K -11.21%G +0.000%19.8%2026-08-28 15:51
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.