The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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1. FC Köln v SC Freiburg

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00 UTC

Final: 1. FC Köln 0–1 SC Freiburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Köln (Local)

Prediction 57.34%1.74fair odd
EV -5.38%
Edge -3.26%
Kelly -8.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.57%57.34%57.34%58.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.541.521.6566.23%64.86%65.79%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SC Freiburg (Visit)

Prediction 20.24%4.94fair odd
EV -4.86%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -1.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.81%20.24%20.24%20.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.554.704.7025.00%21.97%21.28%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.42%4.46fair odd
EV -1.37%
Edge -0.312%
Kelly -0.404%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.54%22.42%22.42%24.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.913.904.4029.41%25.60%25.64%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: 1. FC Köln (Local): 57.34%; SC Freiburg (Visit): 20.24%; Draw: 22.42%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.46. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.40, with an expected value of -1.37%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.83%EV -5.38%E -3.26%K -8.28%G +0.000%4.66I 21.46%NM 20.48%EV -5.67%E -1.22%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.69%EV -1.37%E -0.312%K -0.404%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-03 10:31
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.33%EV -5.38%E -3.26%K -8.28%G +0.000%4.56I 21.93%NM 20.38%EV -7.70%E -1.69%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 23.29%EV -10.56%E -2.65%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-03 13:50
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.17%EV -9.97%E -6.35%K -17.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.40%EV -10.94%E -2.49%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.44%EV -10.34%E -2.58%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-03 10:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.17%EV -9.97%E -6.35%K -17.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.40%EV -10.94%E -2.49%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.44%EV -10.34%E -2.58%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-03 10:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.36%EV -11.12%E -7.17%K -20.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.10%EV -8.91%E -1.98%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.54%EV -5.86%E -1.39%K -1.83%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-03 01:10
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 54.57%EV -12.26%E -8.02%K -23.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 20.87%EV -19.03%E -4.76%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.56%EV -23.79%E -7.00%K -9.91%G +0.000%19.8%2026-10-03 10:34
betano_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 54.57%EV -12.26%E -8.02%K -23.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 20.87%EV -19.03%E -4.76%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.56%EV -23.79%E -7.00%K -9.91%G +0.000%19.8%2026-10-03 10:34
Unibet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.37%EV -12.84%E -8.45%K -24.69%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.88%EV -4.86%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.75%EV -12.58%E -3.23%K -4.34%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-03 09:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.37%EV -12.84%E -8.45%K -24.69%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.88%EV -4.86%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.75%EV -12.58%E -3.23%K -4.34%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-03 09:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.37%EV -12.84%E -8.45%K -24.69%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.88%EV -4.86%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.75%EV -12.58%E -3.23%K -4.34%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-03 09:30
Grosvenor🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 58.53%EV -13.41%E -8.88%K -26.30%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.81%EV -4.86%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.66%EV -12.58%E -3.23%K -4.34%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-03 09:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 58.53%EV -13.41%E -8.88%K -26.30%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.81%EV -4.86%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.66%EV -12.58%E -3.23%K -4.34%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-03 09:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 58.53%EV -13.41%E -8.88%K -26.30%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.81%EV -4.86%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.66%EV -12.58%E -3.23%K -4.34%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-03 09:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 58.53%EV -13.41%E -8.88%K -26.30%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.81%EV -4.86%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.66%EV -12.58%E -3.23%K -4.34%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-03 09:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 58.53%EV -13.41%E -8.88%K -26.30%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.81%EV -4.86%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.66%EV -12.58%E -3.23%K -4.34%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-03 09:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 58.53%EV -13.41%E -8.88%K -26.30%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.81%EV -4.86%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.66%EV -12.58%E -3.23%K -4.34%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-03 09:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.68I 59.52%NM 56.39%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%5.6%2026-10-03 13:01