The School of Odds
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1. FC Köln v RB Leipzig

2026-11-09 17:00 UTC — Frauen-Bundesliga

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Köln (Local)

Prediction 46.05%2.17fair odd
EV -7.43%
Edge -3.70%
Kelly -7.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.79%46.05%46.05%47.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.901.951.932.0152.63%51.37%51.81%49.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

RB Leipzig (Visit)

Prediction 28.71%3.48fair odd
EV -5.83%
Edge -1.78%
Kelly -2.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.49%28.71%28.71%28.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.203.223.2832.26%31.25%31.06%30.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.23%3.96fair odd
EV -9.15%
Edge -2.54%
Kelly -3.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.84%25.23%25.23%25.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.593.603.603.6027.86%27.80%27.78%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: 1. FC Köln (Local): 46.05%; RB Leipzig (Visit): 28.71%; Draw: 25.23%. For RB Leipzig (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.48. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.28, with an expected value of -5.83%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 45.79%EV -7.43%E -3.70%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.58%EV -7.55%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 25.63%EV -9.41%E -2.62%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-05 08:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.32%EV -11.11%E -5.76%K -11.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.84%EV -11.00%E -3.55%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -9.15%E -2.54%K -3.52%G +0.000%11.8%2026-11-05 09:25
1xBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.46%EV -12.50%E -6.58%K -13.88%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 27.49%EV -5.83%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.05%EV -9.15%E -2.54%K -3.52%G +0.000%10.9%2026-11-05 08:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.