The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

1. FC Köln v Hamburger SV

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 10:03 UTC

Final: 1. FC Köln 3–1 Hamburger SV

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Köln (Local)

Prediction 63.96%1.56fair odd
EV -5.97%
Edge -4.06%
Kelly -12.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.64%63.96%63.89%64.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.431.471.4775.19%69.84%68.03%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hamburger SV (Visit)

Prediction 15.39%6.50fair odd
EV -0.434%
Edge -0.067%
Kelly -0.079%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.45%15.39%15.37%16.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.405.655.406.4718.52%17.69%18.52%15.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.65%4.84fair odd
EV -6.46%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -1.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.12%20.65%20.74%22.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.033.904.5326.67%24.79%25.64%22.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: 1. FC Köln (Local): 63.96%; Hamburger SV (Visit): 15.39%; Draw: 20.65%. For Hamburger SV (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.50. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 6.47, with an expected value of -0.434%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.64%EV -5.97%E -4.06%K -12.71%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.51%EV -16.90%E -3.13%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -19.47%E -4.99%K -6.71%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-14 13:50
Grosvenor🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.64%EV -5.97%E -4.06%K -12.71%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.51%EV -16.90%E -3.13%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -19.47%E -4.99%K -6.71%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-14 13:49
Unibet (NL)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.64%EV -5.97%E -4.06%K -12.71%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.51%EV -16.90%E -3.13%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -19.47%E -4.99%K -6.71%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-14 13:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.64%EV -5.97%E -4.06%K -12.71%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.51%EV -16.90%E -3.13%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -19.47%E -4.99%K -6.71%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-14 13:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.64%EV -5.97%E -4.06%K -12.71%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.51%EV -16.90%E -3.13%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -19.47%E -4.99%K -6.71%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-14 13:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.64%EV -5.97%E -4.06%K -12.71%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.51%EV -16.90%E -3.13%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -19.47%E -4.99%K -6.71%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-14 13:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.64%EV -5.97%E -4.06%K -12.71%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.51%EV -16.90%E -3.13%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -19.47%E -4.99%K -6.71%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-14 13:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.64%EV -5.97%E -4.06%K -12.71%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.51%EV -16.90%E -3.13%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -19.47%E -4.99%K -6.71%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-14 13:49
ATG (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.64%EV -5.97%E -4.06%K -12.71%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.51%EV -16.90%E -3.13%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -19.47%E -4.99%K -6.71%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-14 13:50
Pinnacle🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.02%EV -7.25%E -5.00%K -16.12%G +0.000%6.22I 16.08%NM 14.93%EV -4.28%E -0.688%K -0.820%G +0.000%4.41I 22.68%NM 21.05%EV -8.94%E -2.03%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-17 09:55
1xBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.92%EV -7.89%E -5.48%K -17.94%G +0.000%6.47I 15.46%NM 14.45%EV -0.434%E -0.067%K -0.079%G +0.000%4.53I 22.08%NM 20.64%EV -6.46%E -1.43%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 09:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.83%EV -10.45%E -7.47%K -26.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -7.67%E -1.28%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.28%EV -13.28%E -3.16%K -4.15%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 09:55
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.83%EV -10.45%E -7.47%K -26.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -7.67%E -1.28%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.28%EV -13.28%E -3.16%K -4.15%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 09:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.82%EV -10.45%E -7.47%K -26.13%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.40%EV -10.74%E -1.85%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.78%EV -11.21%E -2.61%K -3.40%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 09:30
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.05%EV -13.01%E -9.57%K -36.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.84%EV -15.36%E -2.79%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.12%EV -10.59%E -2.45%K -3.18%G +0.000%14.8%2026-10-17 09:20
betano_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 63.05%EV -14.93%E -11.23%K -45.24%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 14.58%EV -11.51%E -2.00%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.36%EV -22.57%E -6.02%K -8.21%G +0.000%19.2%2026-10-17 09:59
Bet Victor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 63.05%EV -14.93%E -11.23%K -45.24%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 14.58%EV -11.51%E -2.00%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.36%EV -22.57%E -6.02%K -8.21%G +0.000%19.2%2026-10-17 09:58
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.36I 73.53%NM 66.27%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.25%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.48%11.0%2026-10-17 10:00