Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Köln v Bayern Munich

Kickoff: 2026-03-15 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

82%

12%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Köln (Local)

Prediction 6.86%14.57fair odd

EV +9.83%

Edge +0.614%

Kelly +0.655%

Growth +0.064%

assuming max odds 16.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

5.65%6.86%6.86%7.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

10.5012.8813.4016.009.52%7.76%7.46%6.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bayern Munich (Visit)

Prediction 81.53%1.23fair odd

EV -3.79%

Edge -3.21%

Kelly -21.07%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

76.97%81.53%80.39%84.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.081.121.111.1892.59%89.29%90.09%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.60%8.62fair odd

EV +30.20%

Edge +2.69%

Kelly +2.96%

Growth +0.893%

assuming max odds 11.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

8.38%11.60%12.75%15.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

5.507.386.6711.2218.18%13.55%14.99%8.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: 1. FC Köln (Local): 6.86%; Bayern Munich (Visit): 81.53%; Draw: 11.60%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.62. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.22, corresponding to a positive expected value of +30.20%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Draw ▼	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	13.52I 7.40%NM 6.95%EV -7.20%E -0.532%K -0.575%G +0.000%	1.11I 90.09%NM 84.67%EV -9.50%E -8.56%K -86.37%G +0.000%	11.22I 8.91%NM 8.38%EV +30.20%E +2.69%K +2.96%G +0.893%	6.4%	2026-03-15 15:45
Tipico (DE)🎯	16.00I 6.25%NM 5.65%EV +9.83%E +0.614%K +0.655%G +0.064%	1.11I 90.09%NM 81.44%EV -9.50%E -8.56%K -86.37%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 12.91%EV -18.77%E -2.68%K -3.13%G +0.000%	10.6%	2026-03-15 15:40
1xBet🎯	13.40I 7.46%NM 6.96%EV -8.02%E -0.599%K -0.647%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 79.05%EV -3.79%E -3.21%K -21.07%G +0.000%	6.67I 14.99%NM 13.99%EV -22.60%E -3.39%K -3.99%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-03-15 15:55
BoyleSports🎯	11.00I 9.09%NM 7.99%EV -24.49%E -2.23%K -2.45%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 78.49%EV -8.69%E -7.75%K -72.38%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 13.52%EV -24.57%E -3.78%K -4.47%G +0.000%	13.8%	2026-03-15 15:25
Bet Victor🎯	10.50I 9.52%NM 7.92%EV -27.93%E -2.66%K -2.94%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 76.97%EV -11.95%E -11.06%K -149.33%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 15.11%EV -36.17%E -6.58%K -8.04%G +0.000%	20.3%	2026-03-15 15:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.