The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

VfL Wolfsburg v SC Paderborn

Kickoff: 2026-05-21 18:32 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfL Wolfsburg (Local)

Prediction 56.72%1.76fair odd
EV -3.00%
Edge -1.76%
Kelly -4.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.02%56.72%56.72%56.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.641.641.7166.23%61.03%60.98%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SC Paderborn (Visit)

Prediction 19.26%5.19fair odd
EV +0.163%
Edge +0.031%
Kelly +0.039%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.64%19.26%19.26%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.354.814.805.2022.99%20.80%20.83%19.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.02%4.16fair odd
EV -5.14%
Edge -1.30%
Kelly -1.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.02%24.02%24.02%24.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.773.803.9528.99%26.53%26.32%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VfL Wolfsburg (Local): 56.72%; SC Paderborn (Visit): 19.26%; Draw: 24.02%. For SC Paderborn (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.19. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.163%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Casumo🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.76%EV -3.00%E -1.76%K -4.23%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.67%EV +0.163%E +0.031%K +0.039%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.57%EV -5.14%E -1.30%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-21 18:30
betPARX🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.76%EV -3.00%E -1.76%K -4.23%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.67%EV +0.163%E +0.031%K +0.039%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.57%EV -5.14%E -1.30%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-21 18:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.53%EV -5.84%E -3.52%K -8.85%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -3.69%E -0.738%K -0.922%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -8.74%E -2.30%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-21 18:30
Unibet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.83%EV -6.97%E -4.25%K -10.90%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -3.69%E -0.738%K -0.922%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -8.74%E -2.30%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-21 18:29
Unibet (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.10%EV -5.84%E -3.52%K -8.85%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.40%EV -7.54%E -1.57%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -8.74%E -2.30%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-21 18:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.10%EV -5.84%E -3.52%K -8.85%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.40%EV -7.54%E -1.57%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -8.74%E -2.30%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-21 18:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.10%EV -5.84%E -3.52%K -8.85%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.40%EV -7.54%E -1.57%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -8.74%E -2.30%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-21 18:30
BetRivers🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.72%EV -7.54%E -4.63%K -11.97%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.26%EV -7.54%E -1.57%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.02%EV -7.54%E -1.96%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-21 18:25
TABtouch🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.10%EV -6.97%E -4.25%K -10.90%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -8.50%E -1.79%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -9.94%E -2.65%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-21 18:30
Grosvenor🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.13%EV -7.54%E -4.63%K -11.97%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.47%EV -9.47%E -2.01%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -9.94%E -2.65%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-21 18:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.13%EV -7.54%E -4.63%K -11.97%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.47%EV -9.47%E -2.01%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -9.94%E -2.65%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-21 18:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.10%EV -8.11%E -5.01%K -13.08%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.34%EV -9.47%E -2.01%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.56%EV -11.14%E -3.01%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-21 18:30
LeoVegas🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.25%EV -8.68%E -5.39%K -14.22%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.27%EV -9.47%E -2.01%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.48%EV -11.14%E -3.01%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-21 18:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.02%EV -8.68%E -5.39%K -14.22%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -11.39%E -2.48%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.38%EV -11.14%E -3.01%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-21 18:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 56.03%EV -14.35%E -9.50%K -28.13%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 19.45%EV -16.21%E -3.73%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.52%EV -17.15%E -4.97%K -7.00%G +0.000%18.2%2026-05-21 18:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.