The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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VfL Wolfsburg v 1. FC Heidenheim

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 11:00 UTC

Final: VfL Wolfsburg 3–1 1. FC Heidenheim

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfL Wolfsburg (Local)

Prediction 57.52%1.74fair odd
EV -2.21%
Edge -1.30%
Kelly -3.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.62%57.50%57.37%59.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.491.621.621.7067.11%61.64%61.73%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Heidenheim (Visit)

Prediction 20.93%4.78fair odd
EV +7.17%
Edge +1.40%
Kelly +1.74%
Growth +0.125%

assuming max odds 5.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.90%20.85%21.08%22.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.324.255.1225.97%23.13%23.53%19.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.55%4.64fair odd
EV -0.884%
Edge -0.192%
Kelly -0.246%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.26%21.65%21.55%23.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.224.254.6025.64%23.69%23.53%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VfL Wolfsburg (Local): 57.52%; 1. FC Heidenheim (Visit): 20.93%; Draw: 21.55%. For 1. FC Heidenheim (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.78. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.12, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.17%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.65%EV -5.09%E -3.08%K -7.83%G +0.000%5.12I 19.53%NM 18.90%EV +7.17%E +1.40%K +1.74%G +0.125%4.31I 23.20%NM 22.45%EV -7.13%E -1.65%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-17 10:59
LowVig.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.72%EV -5.09%E -3.08%K -7.83%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV +4.66%E +0.932%K +1.16%G +0.054%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.23%EV -11.66%E -2.84%K -3.76%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-17 10:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.72%EV -5.09%E -3.08%K -7.83%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV +4.66%E +0.932%K +1.16%G +0.054%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.23%EV -11.66%E -2.84%K -3.76%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-17 10:40
FanDuel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.02%EV -9.69%E -6.17%K -17.00%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.91%EV +2.57%E +0.524%K +0.658%G +0.017%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -9.50%E -2.26%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-17 10:59
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.33%EV -6.82%E -4.21%K -10.99%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV +0.473%E +0.099%K +0.125%G +0.001%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.98%EV -7.35%E -1.71%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-17 10:45
SportsBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.33%EV -7.97%E -4.98%K -13.28%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV +0.473%E +0.099%K +0.125%G +0.001%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -9.50%E -2.26%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-17 10:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.96%EV -7.97%E -4.98%K -13.28%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -1.62%E -0.345%K -0.438%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -3.04%E -0.675%K -0.868%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-17 10:54
Marathon Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.48%EV -6.82%E -4.21%K -10.99%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%EV -1.62%E -0.345%K -0.438%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.71%EV -11.66%E -2.84%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-17 10:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.68%EV -9.69%E -6.17%K -17.00%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -3.71%E -0.807%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -13.81%E -3.45%K -4.60%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-17 10:55
Coolbet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.09%E -3.08%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.15%EV -5.81%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.15%EV -3.04%E -0.675%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-17 10:58
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.82%E -4.21%K -10.99%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -5.81%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -3.04%E -0.675%K -0.868%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-17 10:55
Fanatics🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.58%EV -6.82%E -4.21%K -10.99%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -5.81%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -7.35%E -1.71%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-17 10:44
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.74%EV -7.97%E -4.98%K -13.28%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -5.81%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.74%EV -8.43%E -1.98%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-17 10:59
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.66%EV -6.82%E -4.21%K -10.99%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -5.81%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -13.81%E -3.45%K -4.60%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-17 10:55
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.81%EV -7.39%E -4.59%K -12.12%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.33%EV -5.81%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.87%EV -13.81%E -3.45%K -4.60%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-17 10:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.81%EV -7.39%E -4.59%K -12.12%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.33%EV -5.81%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.87%EV -13.81%E -3.45%K -4.60%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-17 10:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.81%EV -7.39%E -4.59%K -12.12%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.33%EV -5.81%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.87%EV -13.81%E -3.45%K -4.60%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-17 10:55
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.43%EV -9.69%E -6.17%K -17.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -5.81%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -13.81%E -3.45%K -4.60%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-17 10:30
1xBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.53%EV -5.09%E -3.08%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.47I 22.37%NM 21.24%EV -6.43%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.47I 22.37%NM 21.24%EV -3.68%E -0.824%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-17 10:59
Codere (IT)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.56%EV -5.67%E -3.45%K -8.85%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.46%EV -7.90%E -1.80%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -3.04%E -0.675%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-17 10:40
picklebet_au🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.71%EV -6.24%E -3.83%K -9.91%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.38%EV -7.90%E -1.80%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -3.04%E -0.675%K -0.868%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-17 10:35
Bet Victor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.17%EV -7.97%E -4.98%K -13.28%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -7.90%E -1.80%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -3.04%E -0.675%K -0.868%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-17 10:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.72%EV -6.82%E -4.21%K -10.99%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.50%EV -8.95%E -2.06%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -3.04%E -0.675%K -0.868%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-17 10:35
betano_uk🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.82%EV -7.39%E -4.59%K -12.12%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.50%EV -9.36%E -2.16%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -3.04%E -0.675%K -0.868%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-17 10:59
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.65%EV -9.69%E -6.17%K -17.00%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.54%EV -9.36%E -2.16%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.81%EV -15.97%E -4.09%K -5.51%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 10:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -6.82%E -4.21%K -10.99%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -9.99%E -2.32%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -7.35%E -1.71%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-17 10:59
Bovada🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.74%EV -6.82%E -4.21%K -10.99%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -9.99%E -2.32%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -9.50%E -2.26%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-17 10:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.74%EV -6.82%E -4.21%K -10.99%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.63%EV -11.04%E -2.60%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.63%EV -8.43%E -1.98%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-17 10:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -6.82%E -4.21%K -10.99%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -12.09%E -2.88%K -3.78%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -0.884%E -0.192%K -0.246%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-17 10:35
betfred_uk🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -6.82%E -4.21%K -10.99%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -12.09%E -2.88%K -3.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -9.50%E -2.26%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-17 10:40
LeoVegas🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.13%EV -7.97%E -4.98%K -13.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.76%EV -12.09%E -2.88%K -3.78%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.11%EV -6.70%E -1.55%K -2.01%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-17 10:55
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.04%EV -7.97%E -4.98%K -13.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.73%EV -12.09%E -2.88%K -3.78%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.23%EV -7.35%E -1.71%K -2.23%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-17 10:35
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.04%EV -7.97%E -4.98%K -13.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.73%EV -12.09%E -2.88%K -3.78%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.23%EV -7.35%E -1.71%K -2.23%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-17 10:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -7.97%E -4.98%K -13.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -12.09%E -2.88%K -3.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -9.50%E -2.26%K -2.97%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-17 10:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -7.97%E -4.98%K -13.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -12.09%E -2.88%K -3.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -9.50%E -2.26%K -2.97%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-17 10:55
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -7.97%E -4.98%K -13.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -12.09%E -2.88%K -3.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -9.50%E -2.26%K -2.97%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-17 10:55
Neds🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -7.97%E -4.98%K -13.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -12.09%E -2.88%K -3.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -9.50%E -2.26%K -2.97%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-17 10:55
Unibet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.11%EV -2.21%E -1.30%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -14.18%E -3.46%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.04%EV -8.43%E -1.98%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-17 10:55
Casumo🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.11%EV -2.21%E -1.30%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -14.18%E -3.46%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.04%EV -8.43%E -1.98%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-17 10:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.11%EV -2.21%E -1.30%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -14.18%E -3.46%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.04%EV -8.43%E -1.98%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-17 10:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.11%EV -2.21%E -1.30%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -14.18%E -3.46%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.04%EV -8.43%E -1.98%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-17 10:55
Grosvenor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.11%EV -2.21%E -1.30%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -14.18%E -3.46%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.04%EV -8.43%E -1.98%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-17 10:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.11%EV -2.21%E -1.30%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -14.18%E -3.46%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.04%EV -8.43%E -1.98%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-17 10:55
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.11%EV -2.21%E -1.30%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -14.18%E -3.46%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.04%EV -8.43%E -1.98%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-17 10:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.11%EV -2.21%E -1.30%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -14.18%E -3.46%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.04%EV -8.43%E -1.98%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-17 10:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 58.34%EV -14.29%E -9.59%K -29.17%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.20%EV -14.18%E -3.46%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.45%EV -8.43%E -1.98%K -2.59%G +0.000%15.0%2026-10-17 10:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.32%EV -10.27%E -6.58%K -18.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -16.27%E -4.07%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.32%EV -5.19%E -1.18%K -1.53%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-17 10:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.02%EV -9.69%E -6.17%K -17.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.99%EV -16.27%E -4.07%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.99%EV -13.81%E -3.45%K -4.60%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-17 10:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 56.94%EV -11.42%E -7.41%K -21.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.92%EV -16.27%E -4.07%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.13%EV -10.58%E -2.55%K -3.36%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-17 10:39
BetRivers🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.64%EV -5.09%E -3.08%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.82%EV -17.32%E -4.38%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -13.81%E -3.45%K -4.60%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-17 10:25
TABtouch🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.64%EV -5.09%E -3.08%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.82%EV -17.32%E -4.38%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -13.81%E -3.45%K -4.60%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-17 10:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.79%EV -5.67%E -3.45%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.75%EV -17.32%E -4.38%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -13.81%E -3.45%K -4.60%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-17 10:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.78%EV -6.24%E -3.83%K -9.91%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -18.37%E -4.71%K -6.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.32%EV -13.81%E -3.45%K -4.60%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-17 10:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.62%EV -6.82%E -4.21%K -10.99%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.98%EV -19.41%E -5.04%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.40%EV -14.89%E -3.77%K -5.05%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-17 10:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.62%EV -6.82%E -4.21%K -10.99%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.98%EV -19.41%E -5.04%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.40%EV -14.89%E -3.77%K -5.05%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-17 10:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.68I 59.52%NM 59.23%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.14%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.63%0.5%2026-10-17 10:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.68I 59.52%NM 59.23%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.14%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.63%0.5%2026-10-17 10:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.68I 59.52%NM 59.16%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.75%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.09%0.6%2026-10-17 10:55
Matchbook◎1.68I 59.52%NM 58.95%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.04%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%1.0%2026-10-17 10:59
Smarkets◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.24%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.91%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.85%1.7%2026-10-17 10:50
Kalshi◎1.67I 59.88%NM 58.79%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.64%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.58%1.9%2026-10-17 10:50