The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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VfL Osnabrück v Greuther Fürth

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 12:29 UTC

Final: VfL Osnabrück 3–0 Greuther Fürth

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfL Osnabrück (Local)

Prediction 43.06%2.32fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -2.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.18%43.17%43.02%44.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.962.132.152.2551.02%46.88%46.51%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Greuther Fürth (Visit)

Prediction 30.53%3.28fair odd
EV -1.07%
Edge -0.331%
Kelly -0.478%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.40%30.46%30.58%31.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.013.003.2435.09%33.22%33.33%30.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.40%3.79fair odd
EV -0.987%
Edge -0.263%
Kelly -0.359%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.29%26.37%26.40%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.513.523.7530.30%28.46%28.41%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VfL Osnabrück (Local): 43.06%; Greuther Fürth (Visit): 30.53%; Draw: 26.40%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.79. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.75, with an expected value of -0.987%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.00%EV -3.11%E -1.38%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 30.05%EV -1.68%E -0.522%K -0.758%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.95%EV -5.21%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-25 12:25
Codere (IT)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.49%EV -4.40%E -1.98%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.93%EV -6.87%E -2.25%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.57%EV -6.27%E -1.77%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-25 12:25
picklebet_au🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -5.26%E -2.39%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -5.35%E -1.72%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -4.95%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-25 12:15
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -5.26%E -2.39%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -5.35%E -1.72%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -4.95%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-25 12:09
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.93%EV -5.26%E -2.39%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -5.35%E -1.72%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -6.27%E -1.77%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-25 12:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -5.26%E -2.39%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -5.35%E -1.72%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -7.59%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-25 12:25
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -5.26%E -2.39%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -5.35%E -1.72%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -7.59%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-25 12:09
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -5.26%E -2.39%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -8.40%E -2.80%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -7.59%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-25 12:15
1xBet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.34%EV -5.69%E -2.60%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.23%EV -4.12%E -1.31%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.44%EV -5.21%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-25 12:25
SportsBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.99%EV -6.12%E -2.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -5.35%E -1.72%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -7.59%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-25 12:10
LeoVegas🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.18%EV -6.12%E -2.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -9.93%E -3.36%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -8.91%E -2.58%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-25 12:25
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.89%EV -6.55%E -3.02%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.72%EV -5.35%E -1.72%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -0.987%E -0.263%K -0.359%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-25 12:10
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -7.41%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -2.29%E -0.716%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -4.95%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-25 09:49
Unibet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -7.41%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.40%E -2.80%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -2.31%E -0.624%K -0.854%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-25 11:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -7.41%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.40%E -2.80%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -2.31%E -0.624%K -0.854%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-25 11:54
Grosvenor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -7.41%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.40%E -2.80%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -2.31%E -0.624%K -0.854%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-25 11:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -7.41%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.40%E -2.80%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -2.31%E -0.624%K -0.854%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-25 11:55
Casumo🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -7.41%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.40%E -2.80%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -2.31%E -0.624%K -0.854%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-25 11:54
Svenska Spel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -7.41%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.40%E -2.80%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -2.31%E -0.624%K -0.854%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-25 11:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -7.41%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.40%E -2.80%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -2.31%E -0.624%K -0.854%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-25 11:55
betPARX🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -7.41%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.40%E -2.80%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -2.31%E -0.624%K -0.854%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-25 11:54
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -7.41%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -8.40%E -2.80%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -4.95%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-25 12:09
betano_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -7.41%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -8.40%E -2.80%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -4.95%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-25 12:03
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -7.41%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -8.40%E -2.80%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -4.95%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-25 12:05
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -7.41%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.86%EV -8.40%E -2.80%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -6.27%E -1.77%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-25 12:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -7.41%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -9.93%E -3.36%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -4.95%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-25 12:15
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.41%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -8.40%E -2.80%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.59%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-25 12:15
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -7.41%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -5.35%E -1.72%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -12.87%E -3.90%K -5.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-25 12:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -7.41%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -5.35%E -1.72%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -12.87%E -3.90%K -5.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-25 12:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -7.41%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -5.35%E -1.72%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -12.87%E -3.90%K -5.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-25 12:00
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -7.41%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -5.35%E -1.72%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -12.87%E -3.90%K -5.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-25 12:01
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.41%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -8.40%E -2.80%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.23%E -3.01%K -4.26%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-25 12:15
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.41%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -8.40%E -2.80%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.23%E -3.01%K -4.26%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-25 12:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.72%EV -8.28%E -3.89%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.40%EV -1.07%E -0.331%K -0.478%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.88%EV -2.84%E -0.770%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-25 10:13
BetOnline.ag🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.72%EV -8.28%E -3.89%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.40%EV -1.07%E -0.331%K -0.478%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.88%EV -2.84%E -0.770%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-25 10:14
Marathon Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.83%EV -8.71%E -4.11%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.78%EV -4.74%E -1.52%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.40%EV -7.06%E -2.01%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-25 12:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -8.40%E -2.80%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -4.95%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-25 12:10
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.53%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.97%EV -6.87%E -2.25%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.50%EV -8.91%E -2.58%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-25 12:05
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -8.40%E -2.80%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.59%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-25 12:10
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -8.40%E -2.80%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -10.23%E -3.01%K -4.26%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-25 11:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.63%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.41%EV -12.98%E -4.55%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.95%EV -8.91%E -2.58%K -3.64%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-25 12:15
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.36%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -11.45%E -3.95%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -12.87%E -3.90%K -5.59%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-25 12:08
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.36%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -11.45%E -3.95%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -12.87%E -3.90%K -5.59%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-25 12:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.36%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -11.45%E -3.95%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -12.87%E -3.90%K -5.59%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-25 12:10
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.36%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -11.45%E -3.95%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -12.87%E -3.90%K -5.59%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-25 12:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.36%EV -9.57%E -4.56%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -11.45%E -3.95%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -12.87%E -3.90%K -5.59%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-25 12:10
TABtouch🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.42%EV -10.43%E -5.01%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.14%EV -11.45%E -3.95%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.44%EV -6.27%E -1.77%K -2.46%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-25 11:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.54%EV -10.86%E -5.25%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.08%EV -11.45%E -3.95%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.39%EV -6.27%E -1.77%K -2.46%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-25 11:54
BetRivers🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.54%EV -10.86%E -5.25%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.08%EV -11.45%E -3.95%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.39%EV -6.27%E -1.77%K -2.46%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-25 11:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.41%EV -11.29%E -5.48%K -10.65%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.05%EV -12.06%E -4.19%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.55%EV -7.59%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-25 11:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.82%EV -11.72%E -5.72%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.58%EV -12.37%E -4.31%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.60%EV -12.87%E -3.90%K -5.59%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-25 12:24
LiveScore Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 43.50%EV -12.15%E -5.96%K -11.68%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.14%EV -12.98%E -4.55%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.36%EV -7.59%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-25 11:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 43.50%EV -12.15%E -5.96%K -11.68%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.14%EV -12.98%E -4.55%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.36%EV -7.59%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-25 11:54
NetBet (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 43.49%EV -13.01%E -6.44%K -12.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.29%EV -11.45%E -3.95%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.22%EV -11.55%E -3.45%K -4.91%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-25 12:04
Unibet (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 44.23%EV -15.60%E -7.96%K -16.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.89%EV -11.45%E -3.95%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.88%EV -11.55%E -3.45%K -4.91%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-25 12:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.87%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.60%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.52%0.5%2026-10-25 12:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 43.08%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.43%0.9%2026-10-25 12:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 43.08%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.43%0.9%2026-10-25 12:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 43.08%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.43%0.9%2026-10-25 12:25
Smarkets◎2.30I 43.48%NM 42.88%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.82%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.30%1.4%2026-10-25 12:25
Kalshi◎2.27I 44.05%NM 43.17%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%2.0%2026-10-25 12:25